
I hope Kavi Chongkittavorn is right that the key to the North Korean crisis lies in improved relations between Pyongyang and Asean. But the scenario is not optimistic.
Kim Jong-un clearly takes the view that the United States will not dare to attack him, if only because war would see the destruction of Seoul, which is within range of his nuclear and conventional capability. But President Trump has warned again and again that the “problem” will be solved.
Most likely, the United States is currently monitoring North Korea’s potential firepower, in particular the underground nuclear sites and the location of artillery units, to ascertain whether a pre-emptive strike of 300 cruise missiles plus bunker-buster bombs could take out enough of Pyongyang’s weaponry on land and sea to make the risk worthwhile.
Given Trump’s gambling instincts and his wish to distract world and US public opinion from his domestic woes, he just might stake all on one throw of the dice. If so, we are left with the movie addict’s instruction: “Don’t wake me for the end of the world unless it has very good special effects.”
Barry Kenyon
Pattaya