Brent gains US$3.67 a barrel on Nov 5 after tanker attacks

Renewed attacks on tankers pushed Brent crude futures US$3.67 a barrel higher on November 5, 2026, as concerns about secure oil deliveries tempered optimism over a possible diplomatic resolution to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Closing prices were:

- Brent crude: US$98.29 a barrel, up US$3.67, or 3.88%.
- US West Texas Intermediate crude: US$90.52 a barrel, up US$2.40, or 2.72%.

Both benchmarks recovered from a sharp sell-off on November 4, when losses of more than 8% took their settlements to the lowest levels since August 31.

Tanker incidents sustain fears over oil deliveries

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported incidents involving five or more vessels in the Gulf since November 1. Attacks remained close to a record pace, comparable with October, when 35 vessels were hit, the highest monthly total of the war.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz on routes it described as unauthorised.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, identified reports of tankers striking mines or being targeted by drones in the Middle East as a continuing concern for oil traders. Lipow also pointed to unease over Iran’s unchanged negotiating position towards the United States.

“Today’s rebound reflects caution about pricing in a rapid normalization of oil flows before diplomatic progress translates into dependable shipping and deliveries,” Gelber & Associates wrote in a November 5 note.

A UBS analyst also attributed the modest price recovery to unresolved tensions in the Middle East.

Eurasia lowers odds of both renewed strikes and a deal

Eurasia Group reduced its estimated probability of renewed US strikes on Iran from 65% to 60%, while doubling the likelihood of a prolonged standoff from 15% to 30%.

Eurasia also cut the probability of an agreement from 20% to 10%, citing Iran’s insistence on demands that Trump was considered unlikely to accept. Despite the recent decline in oil prices, the group estimated that an escalation could lift Brent into a range of US$110–US$125 a barrel.

Citi highlighted a different concern: with the US midterm elections over, the White House could turn its attention to executive powers over foreign policy and potentially intensify the conflict.

US President Donald Trump launched the war alongside Israel in February. The resulting surge in fuel prices became a major grievance for voters, and Democrats defeated Trump’s Republican Party to take control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 elections.

The incoming Democratic-controlled Congress takes office in January.

Saudi alerts accompany continued regional attacks

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, issued alerts on November 5 over potential danger in Yanbu, its Red Sea oil export hub. The alerts came as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis continued attacks on the kingdom, extending another front of the Iran war.

The Houthis subsequently claimed an attack on King Fahd airport in Dammam. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the claim.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, meanwhile, held separate telephone discussions with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts. Iran’s foreign ministry described the conversations as covering the “latest progress” in diplomatic efforts to support regional stability.

Russian refinery attacks raise diesel export concerns

Ukraine’s renewed attacks on Russian refineries added to concerns about Moscow’s ability to export diesel under an agreement with Trump.

The Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s largest, appeared to have been targeted during a substantial overnight drone attack on industrial sites southeast of Moscow, according to Reuters video analysis.

If the apparent attack on Ryazan were confirmed, it would make the facility the second Russian refinery hit that week, following the attack on the Yaroslavl plant on the night of November 2.