Chinese arrivals to Thailand could fall 20% in final two months of 2026

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned that Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand could fall by 20% year on year in November and December unless the government takes stronger action to restore confidence following a safety advisory issued by the Chinese embassy.

The warning comes after Chinese visitor numbers fell by 13.57% in October 2026 to 308,942, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. The decline occurred despite China's National Day holiday on October 1, traditionally an important period for outbound travel.

October marked the first year-on-year contraction in Chinese arrivals since February 2026, following a gradual recovery from safety concerns linked to the January 2025 abduction of Chinese actor Wang Xing, who was taken across the Thailand–Myanmar border.

The Chinese embassy's latest advisory, issued in October, urged its citizens to exercise caution when travelling to Thailand because of risks associated with fraudulent job recruitment schemes.

ATTA president Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn told Krungthep Turakij that the advisory had affected confidence among Chinese travellers, particularly those booking organised tours.

Although official figures showed an overall decline of more than 13% in Chinese arrivals in October, ATTA estimated that the Chinese group-tour segment had contracted by at least 40%.

Thanapol cautioned that the downturn could continue into early 2027, with Chinese group-tour arrivals potentially falling by more than 50% during the Lunar New Year holiday if confidence was not restored.

He estimated that overall Chinese arrivals in November and December could be 20% below the corresponding period last year if Thai authorities failed to respond more actively.

ATTA calls for urgent action to rebuild confidence

Thanapol urged the government to work more closely with Chinese authorities to address safety concerns and counter negative reports circulating in China.

He also called on the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to strengthen its confidence-building campaigns and organise promotional roadshows in China with private tourism operators.

Although the Thai tourism industry believes the country's overall image remains positive, Thanapol argued that negative coverage in China continued to influence travel decisions.

He stressed that private businesses could not restore confidence through marketing alone and needed stronger government support.

Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul was scheduled to meet the Chinese ambassador to Thailand on Thursday (November 5) to discuss the advisory and its implications for tourism.

APEC summit offers opportunity to strengthen Thai-Chinese ties

ATTA also wants Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to use the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19 to promote a more positive image of Thailand.

Shenzhen is located in Guangdong province, where Anutin's ancestral village is also situated.

Thanapol suggested that the prime minister visit the village during his trip, presenting his Chinese ancestry as a symbol of the longstanding connections between Thailand and China.

ATTA believes such a visit could generate favourable publicity in China and reinforce the close relationship between the two countries.

Tourism operators face pressure from multiple markets

The difficulties facing Thailand's tourism industry extend beyond China, according to Thanapol.

He reported that European visitor numbers during the final two months of the year were expected to remain broadly unchanged from the corresponding high season in 2025.

Meanwhile, arrivals from the Middle East, a market known for relatively high tourist spending, remained below last year's levels amid geopolitical tensions.

Thanapol also expressed concern that reports of international conflicts and advice from some governments for citizens to stockpile essential supplies were contributing to uncertainty over overseas travel.

With several tourism markets stagnating or contracting, he described Thai tourism operators as increasingly exhausted and financially vulnerable.

He urged the government to provide additional marketing funds and work more closely with the private sector, particularly in restoring confidence among Chinese travellers, who represent Thailand's largest inbound tourism market.

Thailand receives 25.46 million foreign visitors in 10 months

Figures from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports show that Thailand welcomed 25,464,306 international visitors between January 1 and October 31, 2026, a decline of 4.59% from the same period last year.

Tourism revenue totalled THB1.241 trillion, down 2.85% year on year.

Despite the decline in October, China remained Thailand's largest source market during the first 10 months, contributing 4,244,376 visitors, an increase of 12.44% from the corresponding period in 2025.

Malaysia ranked second with 3,226,484 visitors, down 16.34%, followed by India with 1,924,417, down 3.05%.

Russia contributed 1,414,341 visitors, a decline of 0.27%, while South Korea accounted for 932,066, down 26.86%.

Taiwan ranked sixth with 877,729 visitors, up 6.71%, followed by Japan with 838,893, down 4.41%, and the United States with 838,365, up 0.94%.

The United Kingdom contributed 808,214 visitors, a decline of 3.43%, while Germany completed the top 10 with 712,316, down 2.9%.

October arrivals fall 12% year on year

Looking specifically at October, Thailand received approximately 2.265 million international tourists, representing a 12% decline from the same month in 2025.

China remained the largest source market, despite its 13.57% decline to 308,942 arrivals.

Malaysia followed with 276,157 visitors, down 26.97%, while arrivals from India fell 7.89% to 196,980.

Russia contributed 143,638 visitors, a decrease of 1.46%, and the United States accounted for 83,525, down 0.48%.

The October figures have heightened concerns among tourism operators that the Chinese market's recovery could lose momentum during the final months of 2026 without stronger efforts to address travellers' safety concerns.

Source: Krungthep Turakij