Vietnam GDP growth hits 9.95% in Q3 2026 beating forecasts

Vietnam’s economy expanded by 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, its fastest quarterly growth in four years, the National Statistics Office reported on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The July–September increase in gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded the 8.65% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of eight economists. Growth accelerated from 8.81% in the second quarter to its strongest pace since the third quarter of 2022, according to the official economic release.

Stronger foreign investment and manufacturing activity helped drive Vietnam’s expansion, bringing the economy closer to the government’s ambition of double-digit growth.

Vietnam needs faster fourth-quarter growth to reach 10%

Vietnam’s economy grew 9.01% during January–September, meaning growth must exceed 10% in the final quarter to achieve the government’s full-year target of at least 10%.

Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, is pursuing higher-value economic activity as part of its ambition to become a high-income country by 2045.

Bloomberg assessed the latest figures as the strongest indication yet that Vietnam was progressing towards its growth goal and that the government’s large infrastructure investment programme was delivering results.

The National Statistics Office said almost all sectors had performed positively, supported by government efforts to achieve double-digit growth this year. The agency also credited structural reforms with improving governance and the use of resources.

Vietnam’s September exports rise 39.1%

Vietnam’s exports increased by 39.1% year on year in September, substantially exceeding the forecast of 26.6%. Imports rose 45.8%, also above the expected increase of 38.1%.

Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$1.27 billion for September, returning to surplus after running deficits throughout the first eight months of the year.

Registered foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 76.4% year on year to approximately US$50.4 billion during January–September, with manufacturing and property among the main sectors attracting investment. Actual FDI disbursements increased by 12.1% over the same period.
September inflation reaches 5.08%

Vietnam’s consumer prices rose 5.08% in September from a year earlier, slightly below the forecast of 5.10%.

Transport and construction costs remained elevated because of the effects of the Iran war. The Vietnamese government aims to keep inflation at no more than 4.5% this year.

US trade surplus widens as negotiations continue

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States, its largest export market, increased by 23.8% year on year to US$122.6 billion in the first nine months, the National Statistics Office said.

The widening surplus could add to bilateral tensions amid ongoing US Section 301 trade investigations. Vietnam has one of the world’s largest trade surpluses with the US, and Washington is pressing Hanoi to reduce the imbalance.

Vietnamese President and Communist Party General Secretary To Lam told Bloomberg in New York in late September that a trade agreement with the US was “very close”. To Lam pledged to buy more American high-tech products, although direct talks with US President Donald Trump did not take place during the visit.

Vietnam and the US have spent months negotiating a final trade agreement. Outstanding issues include transshipment concerns involving goods routed through third countries to avoid tariffs, as well as non-tariff trade barriers.

Vietnam’s trade balance with China moved further into deficit during January–September. The shortfall reached US$121.5 billion, up 43% from a year earlier, with China remaining Vietnam’s largest source of raw materials and components.