OPEC+ holds October oil quotas amid Hormuz disruption
Seven producers retain September targets as war disrupts exports, while attention turns to the output baselines that will shape 2027 quotas
- Seven OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will keep their October oil production quotas unchanged from September levels.
- The decision to pause further increases is a direct response to the Iran war, which is disrupting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Due to the conflict, actual oil production by member countries remains substantially below their targets because the oil cannot be fully exported.
- Recent attacks by Iran's IRGC on oil tankers in the strait have deepened supply uncertainty, prompting the group to hold production steady.
Seven OPEC+ producers have agreed to leave October oil production quotas unchanged from September, pausing further increases as the Iran war disrupts exports through the Strait of Hormuz and complicates decisions on future supply.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman reached the decision at a meeting on Sunday (September 6, 2026). Their next meeting will take place on October 4 to review market conditions, the group said in a statement.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, face constraints on their influence over prices and market share because the conflict is preventing planned production from translating fully into exports.
Continued disruption through Hormuz leaves oil markets exposed to sharp price swings, even with production targets held steady. Oil extends rally with Brent above US$95 on Hormuz fears
Actual output remains below targets
The decision follows an August 2 agreement to raise September production targets by 188,000 barrels per day. Increases of the same size had been approved for June, July and August.
The September adjustment formed part of the phased reversal of voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day introduced in 2023. However, actual production by participating countries remains substantially below target because of the war.
Jorge León of Rystad Energy said OPEC+ now had very limited influence over the physical oil market. The group could change production targets on paper but could not guarantee that the corresponding volumes would be produced and delivered.
He said the more consequential debate would shift from monthly output adjustments to production plans for 2027.
Capacity review will shape 2027 quotas
A separate layer of production cuts covering most of the alliance’s 21 members remains in force until the end of 2026.
Before deciding whether to unwind those restrictions, the group needs to review each country’s production capacity and establish baselines for 2027. Those baselines will provide the starting point for allocating national quotas.
Discussions are expected towards the end of 2026, raising the possibility that further production increases will be delayed during the fourth quarter.
The latest statement gave no policy guidance beyond October.
Maritime attacks deepen supply uncertainty
The US–Iran conflict continues to affect oil exports through Hormuz.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy said it attacked three tankers in the strait and three US-linked vessels elsewhere on Saturday (September 5). It described the attacks as retaliation for earlier US strikes on Iranian oil tankers that day.
OPEC+ will reassess market conditions at its October 4 meeting as the conflict continues to constrain supplies.
