UN Tourism cuts 2026 arrivals growth forecast to 1–2%
International tourist arrivals rose just 0.4% in the first half of 2026 as Middle East conflict and higher travel costs weighed on demand
- UN Tourism has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for international tourist arrivals to 1–2%, down from a previous projection of 3–4%.
- The primary reasons for the downgrade are the conflict in the Middle East and rising travel costs, which are weakening the tourism sector's momentum.
- The revised outlook is based on data showing that arrivals grew by only 0.4% in the first half of the year, with a decline in the second quarter.
- High prices and economic uncertainty are expected to cause travelers to prioritize value, choosing destinations closer to home or domestic holidays.
UN Tourism, the United Nations tourism agency, has cut its forecast for growth in international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2026 to 1–2%, down from the 3–4% projected in January, as conflict in the Middle East and rising travel costs weaken momentum. UN Tourism said its revised full-year outlook would depend on how long the conflict lasts and its effects on oil prices and overall inflation.
First-half arrivals grow just 0.4%
The September 2026 edition of the World Tourism Barometer showed that international tourist arrivals grew just 0.4% in the first half of the year, leaving the sector broadly flat. Arrivals reached an estimated 690 million between January and June, about 3 million more than in the same period of 2025.
International arrivals increased by 2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 before declining by about 1% in the second quarter. April recorded a fall of about 3%.
UN Tourism attributed much of April’s decline to calendar effects, with the Easter holiday period beginning in March, alongside the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Shaikha Al Nowais, secretary-general of UN Tourism, said the figures showed a sector finding ways to move forward despite considerable pressure. “Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,” Al Nuwais said.
Al Nowais warned that the Middle East conflict was having a substantial impact on destinations far beyond the region. In an interconnected world, destinations everywhere needed to strengthen their ability to withstand crises before emergencies began, she added.
UN Tourism expects international travellers to continue prioritising value for money as high prices and uncertainty persist. Travellers are likely to choose destinations closer to home or switch to domestic holidays to manage costs.
