Brent up 0.79% on Oct 5 after Houthis claim Aramco attacks
OPEC+ holds November output targets steady as Gulf exports remain disrupted, while Brent rises on concerns over Saudi Aramco production
- Brent crude futures rose 0.79% to US$103.06 a barrel on Monday, October 5.
- The price increase was a direct reaction to a claim by Yemen's Houthi rebels that they had attacked Saudi Aramco sites with missiles and drones.
- The claim raised concerns in the market about potential disruptions to oil production in Saudi Arabia, the region's top exporter.
Brent crude futures rose 0.79% to US$103.06 a barrel in early trading on Monday, October 5, 2026, after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said they had launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area. The claim raised concerns about production in Saudi Arabia, the region’s leading oil exporter. Brent’s gain amounted to 81 US cents a barrel by 5.02am Thai time, equivalent to 10.02pm GMT on Sunday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at US$91.57 a barrel, up 46 US cents, or 0.50%, at the same time.
OPEC+ keeps November production targets unchanged
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, kept November production targets unchanged following a brief online meeting of seven core members on Sunday. The decision by the alliance, known as OPEC+, was in line with market expectations.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman took part in the decision. The seven countries are scheduled to meet again on November 1.
OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) also met on Sunday to review market conditions. The separate ministerial committee does not decide production policy.
Gulf exports remain below normal levels
Gulf OPEC+ producers have continued pumping below their targets as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts oil exports. Reuters reported that exports had fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months.
“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
“Consequently, the oil market remains tight,” Staunovo said.
The seven core producers supplied 25 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, according to OPEC figures. That was 630,000 bpd more than in July, although production remained roughly 5 million bpd below February’s prewar level.
Oil prices had fallen on Friday after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel reserves. Brent nevertheless remained above US$100 a barrel, compared with about US$73 before the Iran war began in late February.
Capacity review complicates decisions on 2027 quotas
OPEC+ has increased production targets for much of 2026 after years of output cuts, yet the Middle East conflict has prevented most of those planned increases from translating into actual supply.
The Iran war has also delayed OPEC+’s review of production capacity, which is needed to determine members’ quotas for 2027. Industry sources said last week that uncertainty about future production potential had complicated the assessment.
OPEC+ still has approximately 2 million bpd of production cuts in place covering most members. The alliance needs the capacity review’s findings to determine how to allocate increases and sources said further output policy changes were unlikely before 2027.
