Aramco warns global oil buffer is running dangerously low
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says less than 6 billion barrels of commercial oil remain in storage, with 10% or less readily available as supply buffers thin.
The global oil market is becoming increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks as readily accessible inventories shrink following heavy withdrawals during conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, according to leading energy executives.
Amin H. Nasser, president and chief executive officer of Aramco, said global commercial oil inventories had fallen below 6 billion barrels, with only about 10% or less of that volume practically available to the market.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser said the depletion of usable stocks was making it increasingly difficult for governments to draw on reserves to cushion supply disruptions and rising fuel prices.
He said more than 1 billion barrels had been released, mainly from onshore commercial inventories, since the Middle East crisis began this year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) puts global oil demand at about 102 million barrels per day, highlighting how quickly available stocks could be consumed if major supply disruptions persist.
Another 100 million barrels set for release
The IEA is preparing a further coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel to help ease pressure from surging diesel prices.
It remains unclear whether some of that volume will come from the record 400-million-barrel emergency release announced in March but not yet fully delivered to the market.
Nasser said the difficulty in agreeing on the additional 100 million barrels reflected how strained global inventories had become.
Operational restrictions mean not all oil recorded in storage can immediately reach the market. Some remains at the bottom of storage tanks or inside pipelines, while governments also require minimum emergency reserve levels to be maintained.
Energy executives warned that rebuilding those stocks while continuing to meet global demand could take years, potentially prolonging volatility beyond next year.
Chevron warns market has lost vital buffer
Chevron chairman and chief executive Mike Wirth said the depletion of oil and fuel inventories had made the global energy system more fragile and pushed the underlying floor for oil prices higher.
The conflicts have tightened supplies of both crude oil and refined products, leaving markets with less capacity to absorb further disruptions.
Western countries in particular have drawn heavily on their inventories, increasing the importance of continued oil shipments from the Middle East.
Russell Hardy, chief executive of commodities trader Vitol, said seaborne exports from the region were crucial to keeping the market balanced through the winter because Western inventories had largely been depleted.
Around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels per day of refined products had left the Middle East by tanker over a recent seven-to-10-day period, according to Hardy.
US emergency oil stocks at lowest since 1982
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks have meanwhile fallen to their lowest level since October 1982, according to US Department of Energy data.
The reserve fell to about 284.6 million barrels in September as the United States continued releasing emergency stocks to support the market.
The pressure is not confined to oil.
Natural gas inventories are also depleted, increasing the risk of sharp price movements if winter weather drives up demand.
PETRONAS president and group chief executive Tengku Muhammad Taufik warned that a severe winter could trigger an acute gas-market crisis in the first quarter of 2027 if storage levels fall to minimum levels.
With commercial and strategic stocks already reduced, energy executives said the global market increasingly depends on uninterrupted production and exports, particularly from the Middle East, to prevent further pressure on prices.
