Brent losses top US$7 a barrel after November 9 settlement
Strong oil flows through Hormuz and signs of excess supply weighed on prices as Trump linked restraint on Iran to progress in talks.
- The sell-off was spurred by comments from US President Donald Trump indicating that renewed attacks on Iran were unlikely as peace negotiations progressed, easing geopolitical tensions.
- Increased oil supply contributed to the price drop, with strong volumes flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and a significant rise in OPEC's oil production in October.
- Analysts also cited signs of a renewed global oil surplus, estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day in October, and weakness in the physical market as reasons for the decline.
Brent crude’s losses widened to more than US$7 a barrel after settlement on Monday (November 9, 2026), taking the benchmark to its lowest since late August. The sell-off followed US President Donald Trump’s indication that renewed attacks on Iran were highly unlikely if negotiations to end the conflict progressed.
Brent had settled at US$92.57 a barrel, down US$5.75, or 5.85%, before its losses deepened in later trading.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled at US$86.85 a barrel, a decline of US$3.98, or 4.38%. WTI’s losses subsequently widened to more than US$5 a barrel.
Brent had already lost 16% in the week before November 9, its sharpest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Strong Hormuz flows add to selling pressure
“Crude futures are under selling pressure once again as oil volumes continue strong through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told Al Jazeera on November 8 that Baghdad had reached understandings with Washington allowing Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz along a shipping lane near Oman.
Morgan Stanley reported on November 9 that Dated Brent, a benchmark used to price physical oil cargoes worldwide, had fallen below the nearby Brent futures contract. The discount pointed to weakness in the physical market.
Some analysts saw signs of renewed oversupply as high prices reduced demand. JPMorgan estimated a global oil surplus of about 1.4 million barrels per day in October in a report published the week before November 9.
The 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) produced 22.87 million barrels per day in October, an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day from September, a Reuters survey found. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq led the gains despite continuing export constraints.
A preliminary Reuters poll on November 9 indicated that US crude oil and petroleum product inventories were expected to have fallen in the preceding week.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holdings fell to 279.5 million barrels in the week before November 9, the lowest level since October 1982, according to US Department of Energy data.
Iran sets conditions as Trump plays down fresh strikes
A senior Iranian security official told state media that Tehran would not negotiate unless Washington took practical steps to fulfil seven conditions in a June interim agreement.
Trump said on November 8 that he was highly unlikely to order further attacks on Iran as long as talks aimed at ending the conflict progressed.
Assessing Trump’s comments, TACenergy analysts wrote in a note: “This seems to have encouraged sellers on the prospects for peace even while the actual fighting is not slowing down.”
Trump had suggested during the previous week that attacks on Iran could resume, prompting Tehran to pledge retaliation against US and Israeli targets. However, there had been no indication of a large-scale US military operation.
Trump was scheduled to meet Qatar’s prime minister on November 9. Qatar has acted as a mediator, although senior US and Gulf officials questioned whether an agreement was close.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and his Omani counterpart called for continued diplomacy to contain the regional crisis and protect maritime security and shipping lanes during a November 9 telephone conversation, Saudi state media reported.
Saudi attacks leave regional security risks unresolved
A strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline in the Medina region caused a fire that was subsequently extinguished, Saudi state media reported, citing an energy ministry source. The source reported no casualties or disruption to pipeline operations.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for a November 8 attack on Saudi Aramco’s corporate office in Riyadh’s financial district. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said debris from the attempted attack shattered windows on several floors.
The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis announced on November 9 that it had destroyed a factory producing ballistic missile components and a chemical plant making ballistic missile fuel. The coalition did not identify either target’s location.
Both the US and Iran reported that shipping had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, despite the diplomatic efforts.
“Fresh tanker incidents and an attack on Saudi Aramco’s offices show that shipping and regional security risks remain unresolved as traders price in a less disruptive outcome,” Gelber & Associates said.
Russia and Ukraine prepare for Abu Dhabi talks
Russia and Ukraine were approaching US-brokered negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10 with good intentions, a US official told reporters at a briefing on November 9. Ahead of the talks aimed at ending Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the official said both sides had privately shown a little flexibility over territorial issues.
