Brent and WTI set for losses of about 2.5% in week to Nov 13 as surplus concerns grow
Brent closed at US$95.84 a barrel and US crude at US$88.56 as growing supplies and softer US demand weighed against Middle East shipping risks.
- The weekly price drop is driven by growing concerns of a global oil surplus, a trend highlighted in a report by the International Energy Agency.
- Weaker U.S. demand contributed to the losses, as evidenced by a reported increase in American crude and fuel inventories.
- The market's focus has shifted from fears of a shortage to fears of a surplus, despite ongoing geopolitical risks related to Iran and attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East.
Brent and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were heading for a second consecutive weekly decline on Friday (November 13, 2026), with both benchmarks on course to lose about 2.5% as signs of excess supply and weaker US demand weighed on prices.
Friday’s settlements were mixed. Brent finished at US$95.84 a barrel, edging up two cents, or 0.02%, while WTI closed at US$88.56, down 18 cents, or 0.20%.
The anticipated weekly losses followed substantially sharper declines in the week ending November 6, when Brent fell 16% and WTI dropped 13%.
Oil market concerns shift from shortages to surplus
An International Energy Agency report released on Friday pointed to a growing global oil surplus, reinforcing a shift in market attention as perceived geopolitical risks from the US-Israeli war against Iran eased.
“It’s clear the biggest fear a few months ago was a fear of shortage,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. “Now it looks like the biggest fear is a surplus.”
Evidence of softer US consumption was also putting pressure on prices, according to Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Sachdeva linked rising crude and fuel inventories to a subdued outlook for demand.
US crude and fuel stocks increased in the week ending November 6, driven by weaker demand for refined products and higher oil imports, according to Energy Information Administration data released on Thursday (November 12).
US maintains pressure on Iran as diplomatic positions remain unchanged
Washington’s emphasis on maintaining its blockade of Iran and increasing other economic pressure remained a focus for oil traders as the war entered its ninth month.
US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that an agreement with Iran was not necessary to bring the war to an end.
Oil trading fluctuated during the week as early hopes of improved US-Iran relations were countered by reports of attacks on Saudi infrastructure by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and on tankers carrying crude from the Gulf.
Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, described a market caught between increasing Middle Eastern supplies and a diplomatic impasse.
“The oil market is torn between increased supply coming out of the Middle East and that there hasn’t been any change in the negotiating positions of the United States and Iran, which is refusing to allow nuclear inspectors into their country,” Lipow said.
Reported attacks sustain risks to Gulf oil shipments
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for major Middle Eastern producers, remained exposed to disruption despite the easing of prices.
Iran’s military said on Thursday that explosions had struck four oil tankers in the strait after the vessels ignored warnings. Reuters could not immediately verify the Iranian account.
The Houthis separately claimed on Thursday to have attacked three sites in Saudi Arabia: a pumping station on the East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea city of Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh.
