Great expectations as Burma backed for Asean chair

Finally, Asean leaders have given Burma the green light to assume the group’s rotating chair, an honour the country skipped in 2006. Endorsing Burma’s long-awaited plan on Wednesday, it became clear the group’s foreign ministers would rubber stamp the proposal the following day. 

It was a huge triumph for the Burmese leaders, especially those in army uniforms who have oppressed their people continuously for the past two decades. For strongman General Than Shwe, this is the ultimate vindication of his past political schemes and manoeuvres. For President Thein Sein, it is insurance that he will be able to lead Burma and continue with the ongoing reforms, strengthening his grip as well as the country’s integration with the Asean community. Surprisingly, the different views expressed by the various dialogue partners at the Bali summit, especially the US, provided additional incentive to endorse Burma’s chairmanship. Both the US and the EU have expressed a degree of satisfaction with the reforms taking place in Burma. Asean does not want to give the impression that it and Burma have yielded to the consistent pressure from the West; they are doing it for their own good.

The group’s decision on this issue and the trust it has placed in the current administration in Burma means the next two years will be crucial for Asean; any change that halts or restricts the ongoing reforms would do serious damage to its creditability. 

Since its admission to the group in 1997, Burma has largely failed to comply with requests from Asean. However, progress has been made since the flawed poll in November last year, which ushered in nominal parliamentary rule. Dialogue between Thein Sein and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi kicked off a series of reforms, which have led to stronger commitment to change. 

Suu Kyi’s positive responses have kept the momentum going along with the release of political prisoners. The West has demanded that all of them must be released. But nobody knows for sure how many are imprisoned. Reconciliation with ethnic groups has become secondary due to its complexity. The current political landscape and the relations between major powers dictate that Burma must be further integrated with Asean. At the moment, the grouping needs to further consolidate in the face of expanded engagements with its powerful dialogue partners.

When Burma was first admitted, it was due to fear of China’s influence inside the country. Now, Burma has been granted the Asean chair in 2014, because of the desire to realise the Asean Economic Community the following year. Burma was the last piece of the jigsaw of regional unity. Now, Asean leaders are working on strict criteria to admit new members so that they will not face unintended consequences that arose in Burma’s case. That helps explain why East Timor’s bid for membership has to wait.

It is hoped that the reforms in Burma will intensify and cover the whole gamut of society. The Burmese people are very resilient and self-sufficient. Like other oppressed peoples around the world, when granted a measure of freedom, their voices will be heard, more and more strongly. It is they who will determine the country’s future.