Be prepared

But Burma is likely to downgrade its military ties with North Korea, though perhaps not sever them outright, to improve relations with the United States.

During her visit to Burma last week, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reportedly called on Burmese leaders to discontinue military cooperation with North Korea. Should Burma decide to comply, it would be a setback for North Korea’s weapons exports. Burma is likely to do so, as it is seeking to come out of its self-imposed diplomatic isolation and improve relations with the US.

Burma would be the latest market to close its doors to North Korean military exports. The shipments of North Korean weapons to Arab countries have come to a halt, with the “Arab Spring” continuing in the Middle East.

It may be hard to measure the impact of dwindling weapons exports on North Korea’s economy, but it will be painful to Pyongyang, which has few other ways of earning hard currency.

North Korea’s economy is a shambles, and food shortages are a cause of rising discontent. Moreover, the state is politically unstable, with power being transferred from despot Kim Jong-il to his youngest son, Jong-un.

The South Korean military is taking political instability, economic hardship and discontent in the North seriously. It is warning that the North may choose to launch armed hostilities against the South again, this time in an attempt to divert public attention away from the maladies that many expect will worsen next year.

True, North Korea has avoided launching an unprovoked act of hostility against the South so far this year, unlike last year when it sank a South Korean warship and shelled a South Korean island off its west coast. But this should give no a false sense of security.

As Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin warned, North Korea may launch a surprise military attack on the South if its guard is lowered, as it has often done in the past. The defence minister was right to tell the military to be prepared for a stringent counter-attack in case South Korea is militarily provoked again next year.

Indeed, North Korea has threatened to attack the South on several occasions this year, with the latest intimidation delivered on November 24. In a protest against a military exercise the South was conducting, Pyongyang said it would turn the South Korean presidential palace into a “sea of fire” if just one shell should land on its territory or territorial waters.

The “sea of fire” remark appeared to be an indication that the North had no intention of engaging in dialogue with the South. By making the remark, it was turning down the South Korean unification minister’s repeated overtures for talks.

North Korea has not just turned its back on the proposal for inter-Korean dialogue. It was also boycotting the six-party talks on its nuclear weapons programme when it said last week that it was making rapid progress on uranium enrichment and construction of an experimental light-water nuclear power plant. South Korea and the US have demanded that it halt its uranium-enrichment programme, freeze missile tests and permit international nuclear inspections before resuming nuclear negotiations.

Given the North’s unmitigated defiance, the defense minister’s call for military preparedness could not have been more appropriate. The military must not permit any weakness to be shown in its posture.