Poll will affect Hu's legacy

The effect goes beyond the future of cross-strait relations. It could even affect the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership handover later this year and, with it, the legacy of Mr Hu. The key lies in the uniqueness of 2012. For the first time since Taiwan introduced direct presidential elections in 1996, both sides of the strait will witness top leadership changes this year.

In October, the CCP will hold its 18th Party Congress and unveil a new leadership line-up. Seven of the nine members in the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s most powerful body, are likely to retire, including Hu. And like it or not, the confluence of the CCP congress and Taiwan presidential election will create ripple effects that cannot be ignored.

In particular, the fortunes of the two incumbent leaders – Hu and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou – are interlocked. Hu chairs the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs in the CCP’s Central Committee, an inner group which takes charge of mainland China’s cross-strait affairs.

Its strategy has been marked by a major rapprochement during Ma’s first four-year term, with 16 agreements signed and a six-decade ban on direct air, sea and postal links lifted. The landmark Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement trade deal was also inked between Beijing and Taipei. This opened the way for Taiwan to reach an investment pact with Japan, its second-biggest trading partner, last September, and Taipei is now in talks with Singapore, New Zealand, India and Indonesia.

Such trade deals are meant to bolster the re-election bid of Ma, who is eyeing a second term on the back of a warmer cross-strait relationship and the benefits this brings to the Taiwan economy.

The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) candidate is squaring off in a fierce fight with Tsai Ing-wen of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). James Soong of the People First Party is the third candidate.

A victory for Ma would strengthen Hu’s standing in the CCP, affirming that his policy has worked. It would also strengthen his hand in the backroom struggle to stack the new Politburo with allies.

At the same time, if peace talks between Beijing and Taipei were to take place – a likelihood Ma indicated last October – both men could even be long-shot nominees for a Nobel Peace Prize – further bolstering Hu’s political legacy. Conversely, a victory for Tsai will be as much a rebuke of Ma’s policies as it is of Hu’s.

“Fingers would be pointed at Hu,” said Hong Kong-based observer Willy Lam. “It could possibly affect his attempts to get his people into the Politburo.”

The election outcome will also have a bearing on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its relations with the CCP. Having the independence-leaning DPP in power could heighten tensions across the strait and embolden the Chinese military to take a bigger role in politics, possibly even pressing for a return to the Politburo Standing Committee. No military personnel have had a seat in the elite body since 1997.

“The PLA may welcome a defeat of Ma because it could get more funds for the military,” said Dr Lam. “On the other hand, if the KMT continues to rule, one can assume that tensions will be lowered further and the PLA will have no reason to ask for a higher budget.”