Maldives: Blood in the water would attract big sharks

The initial account, according to which Nasheed, when faced with a mutiny of the police force, decided voluntarily to step down and hand over authority under constitutional arrangements to vice president Mohammed Waheed Hassan, was soon superseded, and with it the claim of legality for the abrupt transition.

The report of an orderly changeover fell apart in the face of Nasheed’s complaints about the manner of his ousting – it was at gunpoint, he claimed, as his supporters took to the streets in protest. A few violent incidents were reported, and an air of uncertainty descended. The miasma remains; there seems to be no clear path forward, and with every passing day the challenge to Hassan and the standoff between him and his opponent appears more acute.

The balance of the opposing forces is not easily discerned. Nasheed appears to be a forceful leader whose handling of the country’s small police force provoked discontent. Trouble seemed to have been brewing for a while, and eventually Nasheed was surrounded and pushed out by police malcontents in a surprise move that he was powerless to resist.

The army, which is the other part of the security forces, is small and was only recently hived off from the police. It did not intervene, so that the deed was done without conflict. In fact, it seemed a settled affair, so much so that the outside world appeared ready to accept the change without raising objections. It was only later when Nasheed came out against what had happened and his supporters came out on the streets, that a challenge to the new authorities was mounted.

The question of legitimacy has importance. A transition within the four corners of the Constitution would naturally command greater acceptability than the coup that Nasheed claims took place against him. The ousted leader was elected by popular vote and his supporters comprise the majority in the country’s assembly.

There are reports that Hassan, who has only a few elected supporters, is finding it difficult to form the government of national unity that he wishes to set up, though it is argued in his camp that government formation is always a prolonged affair. 

Maldives seems to have moved some distance from the form of government established by former president Gayoom, when political parties were vestigial and democracy lacking. It took much effort from the opposition to compel Gayoom to accept the multi-party elections that installed Nasheed in power, and even now in the course of the current troubles a few faint calls have been made in favour of Gayoom, now far out of the way in Malaysia.

Maldives is regarded as a blissful paradise, a haven of peace and tranquility. Its hundreds of coral atolls are spread out along a wide stretch of ocean, and several of the separate islands have been developed in isolation from each other, so that they are distinct, self-contained little worlds. This has attracted tourists and permitted tourism to grow exponentially without disturbing the essentially conservative Maldivian society. From a more or less subsistence fishing economy, Maldives has advanced in little more than a generation to the first rank in per capita income among the countries of SAARC. This is a measure of the commercial and organisational good sense of its people.

The fear must be that tourism will be affected by the current disturbances, and travel advisories have been put out to deter visitors from some Western countries.

However, as a spokesman proclaimed, violence is not his country’s way. Though there has been a show of force by the security agencies, there has been no violence against civilians: a few scuffles, one even quelled by a call for calm.

The country’s record of moderation can encourage the hope that the Maldivians will find a way out of the current troubles without serious damage to their political institutions and their economy.

There is no sign of any foreign state or non-state actor trying to take advantage of the developments in Maldives, though that must remain a concern, especially among Maldives’ neighbours. The strategic potential of Maldives is well recognised, and at a time when the Indian Ocean attracts increasing attention and some of the littoral powers are developing their blue water naval capacity, fresh rivalries among the powers can disturb present tranquillity.

As the largest close neighbour, India has had to take important responsibility for trying to help restore calm and order. It was quick to accept the initial version of events as put out on behalf of Hassan – too quick, as it turned out, for New Delhi’s early readiness to treat the change of government as an achieved fact proved premature. It thus became necessary to send a senior official from India’s Ministry of External Affairs to meet the contending parties and perhaps to broker some sort of settlement. He has been joined by a counterpart from the US and it is interesting that the two of them seem to have the shared intention of bringing a broad-based administration into being.

This process is incomplete and one cannot say what it will lead to. But it is predictable that New Delhi will not take sides in this crisis, for it has no interest in the situation beyond the restoration of order and the maintenance of good governance.

 

Salman Haidar is India’s former foreign secretary.