Popular, yes, but at what cost to the country?

The latest survey of its popularity should remind the government not to be complacent. The survey was conducted by Khon Kaen University’s E-saan Centre for Business and Economic Research (ECBER), and shows that the Pheu Thai-led administration still commands the support of nearly 72 per cent of the people in the Northeast.

The survey is the third since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra took office, and was conducted from February 29 to March 3 among 1,084 respondents in 20 northeastern provinces. It was found that 72.1 per cent of the respondents were happy with the government’s general performance, while 27.9 per cent were not happy. 

Of all the respondents in the Northeast, 65.8 per cent said that they were satisfied with the government’s performance on political and democratic development, while 34.2 per cent were not. On social issues and the government’s efforts to tackle crime and fight drug trafficking, 65.8 per cent of the respondents gave approval to the government’s performance so far. 

However, the government barely passed the test when it came to economic performance and quality of living, with 50.9 per cent saying they were happy, but 49.1 per cent saying they were not. 

The government may have been complacent since its overwhelming election victory last July, and with these poll results, which show that a majority of people in the Northeast supports it. Still, it must be remembered that the region is a vote stronghold for the Pheu Thai Party. Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that while the government has so far implemented many populist policies to respond to the needs of rural people in the Northeast, the approval rate has dropped from the previous survey in January. This should serve as a warning that although northeastern people broadly let the government pass the poll test in all areas, the high approval rating cannot be guaranteed. 

The Pheu Thai Party has pledged to implement all the populist policies that it promised to voters during the election campaign, such as the rice subsidy programme, fuel subsidies, and the new women’s development fund. But it remains to be seen whether these policies will produce satisfactory results. For instance, there is a serious question on whether the rice subsidy programme – in which prices are guaranteed at above market rates – will truly benefit the majority of farmers in the long term.

This is not to say that the government’s days are numbered. Far from it. In fact, the government has so far received strong political support and is likely to be able to stay in office for a prolonged period. 

As the latest survey suggests, on the political front the government is likely to sail through contentious issues such as the proposed charter amendments. Opponents of this move have so far failed to gather enough strength to stage a forceful protest against the government. In fact, the Pheu Thai Party has so far played its hand well and has managed to avoid triggering widespread political opposition.

However, the ECBER survey suggests that the government has failed to make its supporters satisfied with its economic performance, in spite of the massive amount of money so far pledged to assist grassroots people in the North and Northeast.

There are still many challenges and possible pitfalls for the government if it wants to continue to maintain its popularity at this level. This is reflected in the fact that 62.6 per cent of the poll respondents called on the government to tackle the rising prices of fuel and consumer goods.

It’s easy for the government to implement these populist policies in order to gain political support at the grassroots level, but the harder task is to ensure that they do not result in longer-term negative results. It’s the purse of the voters that counts, but there is also the risk of long-term damage to the country’s economic fundamentals.