Afghan people in danger of being sold out again

When US troops entered Afghanistan just over a decade ago to drive the Taleban and its al-Qaeda allies from power, most people thought the mission was a promising one. Many believed that freedom would return to this war-torn country and the terrorists and their Afghan hosts would no longer have a place to come together to map out their next moves. 

For many people at the time, it made sense to enter Afghanistan to deny al-Qaeda a safe haven. But restoring normalcy to a country that has hardly ever experienced normality in its history has proved to be a thankless task, and it will not get any easier.

Nevertheless, the international community found itself in the business of nation-state building. Afghanistan was as close to what one could call a failed state as it is possible to be. But the textbook approach didn’t work, and all the money and firepower in the world was unable to prevent the mission from going horribly wrong. 

Moreover, a number of unforeseeable incidents haven’t helped the situation. These incidents include friendly fire that has resulted in Afghan civilian deaths, and, more recently, the burning of Islam’s holy book, the Koran, by US soldiers, and the alleged massacre of 17 villagers by a deranged US soldier in southern Afghanistan. These latter two incidents have angered many devout Muslims in the country.

If restoring normalcy in Afghanistan was the aim of the multinational forces’ mission, it was never really clear how removing the Taleban from Kabul and ousting al-Qaeda terrorists would help make a difference in the global war on terrorism. After all, terrorist cells are secret in nature and often do not need a specific geographical location to base themselves. 

With the benefit of hindsight, Afghanistan looked like a trap that the US fell for. Terrorists were driven out of Afghanistan but the world didn’t become a safer place. 

And so after more than a decade of fighting, generals and politicians are talking about negotiating a political settlement with the enemy. But no matter how much the world desires peace in Afghanistan, there are just too many obstacles to ensure that the current talks with the Taleban will not result in sustainable peace. 

Internal rivalries and ill-prepared local security forces mean that the Kabul government is not in a position to cut a meaningful deal with the Taleban insurgents. It seems that the insurgents are simply waiting for the multinational forces to leave so they can take advantage of the power vacuum. The pullout is scheduled for the end of 2014. That date could very well signify the start of another civil war in Afghanistan.

According to a recently released report by the International Crises Group (ICG), “the Afghan government and its international backers have adopted a market-bazaar approach to negotiations. Bargains are being cut with any and all-comers, regardless of their political relevance or ability to influence outcomes. 

“The material effect of international support for negotiations so far has been to increase the incentives for spoilers, who include insurgents, government officials and war profiteers of all backgrounds who now recognise that the international community’s most urgent priority is to exit Afghanistan with or without a settlement.”

Instead of trying to please the warlords with sweet deals, the Afghan government must include all relevant domestic stakeholders in the negotiation process if peace is to be sustainable. The longer the international community waits, the harder it will be to come up with a settlement that is inclusive and protective of citizens’ rights. 

The government owes it to the people of Afghanistan to ensure that whatever rights they have earned over this past decade since the invasion will not be taken away from them when the multinational forces leave the country.