Thaksin to drown out reconciliation this Songkran

Thailand will have a split focus this Songkran. One eye will certainly be on neighbouring Laos and Cambodia where Thaksin Shinawatra is expected to meet thousands of Thai supporters. It will be a historic coming together for the former PM and the red shirts after years of long-distance contact through phone-ins and video links. 

Efforts are being made to ensure that the meetings in Laos and Cambodia are memorable reunions that will attract world headlines. 

It will be an uneasy distraction, coming as the country continues to grapple with the aftermath of the Yala and Hat Yai bombings while also treading the sensitive water of national “reconciliation”. The meetings fly in the face of the ongoing attempt by the Thai government to convince the public that reconciliation efforts have nothing to do with Thaksin.

The Yingluck government, of course, will try to distance itself from the meetings. Although the Thai prime minister again graced the front pages of local newspapers this week, pictured with Cambodian leader Hun Sen and his wife, Yingluck Shinawatra can always say she was in Cambodia merely on official duties as head of an Asean nation. 

Anyone who questions the timing and appropriateness of the get-togethers between Thaksin and his supporters will be countered with claims that there is nothing wrong with them.

As long as Laos and Cambodia allow him, Thaksin can visit the two countries freely. The red shirts, meanwhile, have the absolute right to meet and cheer, in the flesh, the man they worship. There is a clear line, however, between being a red shirt and being a state official. 

Things get complicated, legally at least, if Thaksin’s well-wishers include Thai MPs or Cabinet members.

Technically, Thaksin remains a fugitive. His court conviction and jail sentence are still in effect. The Thai political crisis has made a mockery of the fact that whoever is a state official is supposed to bring him in or take proper action in that direction. It doesn’t matter anymore that a state official who comes face to face with Thaksin but fails to treat him as a fugitive is in fact violating the law.

That it doesn’t matter now doesn’t mean it won’t matter in the future. If there is any good lesson at all from the Thai political turmoil, it is that nothing lasts forever. While state officials can embrace Thaksin now without any legal problem, their action could come back to haunt them when the political wind of change blows.

Red shirts are paying about Bt7,000 each to get close to Thaksin, albeit briefly. Whereas the meeting in Laos will reportedly take place under strict rules, the reunion in Cambodia is expected to be freer and probably attended by thousands. It will undoubtedly be a spectacular sight if Thaksin arrives on stage to address his Thai supporters in person.

Politically, it will be difficult to ignore such an event taking place so close to home. Critics will decry attempts to prop Thaksin up for a future amnesty while the other camp will hail the oncoming of long-overdue justice. It doesn’t matter who is right and who is wrong. What is certain is that tension will rise, because everyone will try to prove that he is right.

In many aspects, Thaksin will be “closer” to Thailand during the upcoming Songkran than he has been since he fled the country in 2008. The expected warm receptions in Laos and Cambodia probably reflect the “favourable” political atmosphere in Thailand, where his youngest sister is heading a stable coalition government with a comfortable majority in Parliament.

Everything sounds simple and convenient enough. With the political tide in Thailand turning in his favour, Thaksin will be having a major Songkran bash close to home to strengthen his case for a guilt-free return. It’s easy to say that he’s trying to make it easier for himself. Whether things are getting more difficult around him, however, is harder to say.