Tussle over Chen puts the US and China on guard

It is interesting to watch the drama unfold concerning the plight of blind Chinese social activist Chen Quangcheng, who has expressed his intention to go to the United States after he left the US Embassy the other day. He and his family will definitely make it to the US, sooner or later. However, there are several barriers to overcome first, and soon. 

At the moment, the media headlines – which want to see real and instant progress for Chen – are after the story without probing the complexities of the issue. Almost immediately the story has become embroiled in the rhetoric of a presidential campaign and a good-versus-evil divide. 

Of course, after Chen escaped from house arrest and made his way to the US Embassy, the international community was hoping that everything related to him would end well. Well-wishers hope that he will be able to live somewhere else where he and his family are safe. But in global politics – especially in affairs that directly concern the US and China – nothing is that simple.

The US Embassy and its officials are negotiating with the highest Chinese authorities. But in doing so, they will have to save the “face” of China and its thousands of years of history. From the Chinese perspective, this is what foreigners have to respect. So, the first step was completed when Chen agreed to leave the embassy and return to “Chinese soil”. Now it seems that Chen has changed his mind after hearing negative stories about what the Chinese authorities had done to his wife. It seems that the Chinese government is losing face now for not respecting him and his family. 

So far, nobody has the details of the US-Chinese negotiations. As the two sides are about to discuss their strategic relations for the fourth time, we have to be mindful that this is the world’s most important bilateral relationship at the moment. If something really bad happens to this link, it could be disastrous for global stability. It could have a severe effect on the international economic system. So, in the end, the two sides will have to work out a viable solution over Chen. The blind activist is an extraordinary man, given what he has done to expose forced abortion and sterilisation inside China.

It is interesting to note that American conservatives and those on the far right are looking for opportunities to attack President Barack Obama, especially at the moment. They see the Chen drama as an indication of US weakness against China. This is not the first time they have made such attacks. In the past, whenever the US approached China, the US had to act tough to please its conservative elements. Former President George W Bush had a penchant for that. But Obama understands the Chinese psyche better. The outcome is important, especially with the US in the red to the tune of over US$3 trillion (Bt92.81 trillion) worth of bonds in Chinese control.

Until the US presidential election is over, there will be more dramas unfolding that will immediately question Obama’s leadership vis-a-vis the Chinese. For Asians, they see his leadership as positive in dealing with China. 

China will let Chen go if the the US respects their views on the matter.