Military brass get bogged down by misguided rhetoric

For the past eight years, since the spike in insurgent violence in the deep South, the Thai authorities have shown little in terms of progress – be it in the area of counter-insurgency on the part of the military or in the evolution of a potential political solution to the problem. Instead, the military top brass continues to recite the same old mantra – that the insurgents use violence because they want to attract the world’s attention. They say the Malay-Muslims in the region want the likes of the United Nations and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to come down hard on Thailand to push for a referendum on separation, as happened in East Timor ahead of secession from Indonesia.

Deputy Army chief General Daopong Rattanasuban said on Friday that any UN intervention would lead to a referendum and “Thailand would be finished”. In other words, the Malay-speaking South would no longer be part of Thailand.

For a start, nobody in the international community – including the OIC and the UN – has said anything about a referendum on the subject of a separate state. Nor have the long-standing separatist movements like the Patani United Liberation Organisation, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional and the Barisan Islam Pembangunan Pattani. They have even dropped their demand for complete separation. In fact, some of the exiled leaders of these groups have been in secret talks with senior officials from various ministries and agencies, including the Army. 

What the top brass doesn’t like is that they don’t have a monopoly on the “peace process”. In such cases they sometimes come out with off-the-wall warnings or theories, such as the UN pushing for a referendum.

At the same time, Daopong is saying that 90 per cent of the Malay-Muslims in the deep South are siding with the state. His statement contradicts the fact that Thai officials continue to be targeted by the insurgents.

The logic and understanding employed by the top brass is shaky. They see the conflict through an outdated lens, and they see the insurgents as nothing more than criminals. 

If the brass won’t come around to acknowledge the historical and political underpinning of these ongoing daily attacks, then it means their foot soldiers will continue to be hit by insurgent bullets and shrapnel.

By now they should know that their charm offensive to try to stop the attacks without addressing the root cause has not worked. Civilians appear to be coming around to this realisation, although their response is often made with haste. 

But a hasty response is better then no reaction at all, much less unreasonable comments like those Daopong made. 

Even a bombastic politician like Chalerm Yoobamrung is talking about the need to negotiate with the insurgents. So this begs the question of what the military has to hide? Much has been said about the culture of impunity and the enormous budget going to the deep South, where the military calls the shots. 

But let’s give our soldiers the benefit of the doubt and stay away from conspiracy theories. After all, the current generation of insurgents was in the making for nearly a decade during the 1990s until they slowly emerged in the early years of this century. At that time they were dismissed as “sparrow” bandits. But the spike in violence since 2004, after a huge arms heist at a military base, has meant that Thais could no longer deny their existence. 

Attempts at peace talks with the insurgents have been made, but the reason why nothing seems to be moving in the right direction is because our policy-makers and military leaders can’t come to an agreement on what is the root cause. 

If they choose to take historical grievances for granted because they’re not in the mood to discuss this matter with anybody – either locals or foreigners – then it means ordinary soldiers will continue to bear the brunt of the conflict. Perhaps their thinking would be different if the soldiers patrolling the backroads in the deep South were their sons and nephews.