US drought warns us to be prepared for future trends

The drought in the United States should prompt the relevant ministries here to consider drafting a contingency plan to cope with a sharp drop in farm produce, especially corn and soybeans, which are used in the production of animal feed. 

A large amount of US agricultural produce is imported to Thailand for the production of animal feed. However, this year the US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate of maize production to 101 million tonnes from 274 million, its original June figure. The soybean-production estimate was cut to 73.27 million tonnes from 83 million. 

The reduction is attributed to the severe weather conditions, with 33 per cent of the US experiencing “severe” to “extreme” drought this year. The 2012 dry spell is unlikely to be the last. Unusual patterns over the past few years suggest that extreme weather is likely to continue, and the level of severity is likely to intensify due to climate change.

The sharp drop in American output will inevitably affect Thai farmers. The price of maize and soybeans on the domestic market has already risen in the past few months. According to Bank of Thailand economist Pornnapa Leelapornchai, the average import price of soybean meal increased from Bt15-Bt17 per kilogram to Bt21-Bt22 between January and early August. 

The rising price of imported ingredients for production of animal feed is likely to drive up the price of poultry products later this year into early next year, Pornnapa predicts in an article in Krungthep Turakij, our sister newspaper. Prices will not rise immediately because of remaining supply stocks.

Processed agricultural produce accounts for almost one-fifth of total Thai exports. Therefore a sharp drop or rise in global farm products would certainly affect the country’s economic growth.

The US is experiencing its hottest summer in many decades, with temperatures recently approaching 38 degrees Celsius in some places. While the current drought has yet to heighten concerns over food security, severe and unusual weather patterns over the past few years in various parts of the world should serve as a warning for us to prepare for further unpredictability in food production and supply. 

Thailand has to be better prepared to cope with such fluctuations by better managing the domestic supply-and-demand situation. The use of alternative options from domestic sources should be promoted to ensure a steady supply of farm produce. Homegrown organic farm produce should, for example, be promoted to create value and a niche market.

The drought in the US should also raise awareness of global connectivity, now that environmental and climate-change issues are more likely to affect us all.

Natural disasters such as tsunamis in Japan and droughts in the US have affected us in the same way that the massive floods here last year affected industrial production lines in Japan and other Asian countries. The best way to prepare is to enhance immunity and mitigate impacts rather than hoping that the forces of nature will treat us kindly.