Snub to Jatuporn was a wise move by Pheu Thai brass

The red shirts’ disappointment at the exclusion of their leader, Jatuporn Promphan, from the new Cabinet line-up has overshadowed other ministerial reshuffle news on the front pages. This may be the time to once again evaluate the relationship between one of the country’s richest families and the poor masses of whom it proclaims to be the champion. But enemies of the Pheu Thai Party could be badly mistaken if they give too much importance to the current red-shirt dissatisfaction. The ironic relationship has been subject to frequent scrutiny and speculation about a break-up, and this often surfaces when cases like Jatuporn’s materialise.

The red shirts’ discontent is understandable. The mass movement, however, needs to look at the big picture. After Thaksin Shinawatra, Jatuporn is probably the second-most controversial figure on his side of Thailand’s political divide. Having him in the ministerial line-up would do no one any good, including the man himself.

There were different pro-Jatuporn remarks after the latest Cabinet line-up was announced. Most of his supporters insisted that it was time Thaksin “paid back” someone who risked his life and wellbeing for him. Others, and Jatuporn himself, publicly at least, are of the opinion that a “true warrior” is not supposed to be rewarded.

Politically, the decision to shut Jatuporn out of the Cabinet means either the prime minister and Thaksin realised his appointment would jeopardise the already fragile “reconciliation” scheme, or they decided that Jatuporn’s legal trouble was a package too heavy to carry. Being the top leader of the months-long red-shirt protests in 2010, which culminated in a bloody government crackdown and arson attacks on countless downtown properties, Jatuporn has faced serious charges. Putting him in the Cabinet would be a politically tall order, but to take him out, once in, would be an explosive affair.

Whatever the reasons, the decision to leave Jatuporn out of the Cabinet was a smart one. No matter how “upset” his red supporters must have been, they are unlikely to switch political allegiance. In other words, if an election were held next week or next month, the red shirts might not remain strictly loyal to Pheu Thai, but they would never vote for the Democrats, under any circumstances. Thaksin and Yingluck must have taken this into account before they concluded that everyone would be better off with Jatuporn kept out of the Cabinet.

It’s been reported that some red-shirt factions were planning to confront the prime minister or her big brother over why Jatuporn was “cut loose”. If this signals that a bigger change is in progress regarding the relationship between the red movement’s top leaders and their followers, analysts believe such a change will take a long time. Moreover, any movement as massive as the red shirts is bound to have problems like this. Reports have become more frequent about some red shirts being in conflict with others. It only tells us that the movement is broadening and incorporating all kinds of people, not that it’s breaking up.

The real issue, therefore, is how strong the ties between Thaksin and the red shirts remain. To say they remain solid might not be as accurate as saying the two still need each other. The red shirts know Thaksin’s flaws –his wealth and how he got it is an elephant in their living room. But the movement has no one else to help it stay organised as a powerful political force. The reasons why Thaksin needs the red shirts are even more obvious. He simply cannot survive without them.

The Jatuporn case tells both sides that there’s a price to pay for such a relationship to continue. Thaksin doesn’t want to be too hawkish, whereas his hardcore red followers are more belligerent, seeing Jatuporn in the Cabinet not as a risky provocation but as a justified snub to political enemies. Thaksin has prevailed this time, but as things stand, both sides would rather move toward mending what is broken than let the damage spread uncontrolled.