Assessing the legacy of China's leaders

Most assessments of President Hu Jintao’s decade in charge will credit him with the largest economic expansion in three decades of free-market experiments. The poverty reduction, rise in national income and reserves, and the revival of industry and science bear testimony to this. But the record is adjudged to have fallen short on political liberalisation.

Balancing the duality of wants in a polity like post-revolutionary China must be done in a measured way. There are those who say livelihood upliftment trumps any other consideration, even if growth and the fruits of success are at first spread unevenly. 

Others contend that emancipation from an agrarian mindset, leading to the greatest burst of urbanisation in recorded history, should be balanced with social liberties and political choice. Ultimately, of course, it is for the Chinese to determine the shape and pace of change.

A poll published ahead of the Communist Party congress said 80 per cent of respondents wanted political reform. This was defined as power to oversee the government; in other words, a say in elective office.

Could Hu have done more to facilitate the reform process? One way to judge his legacy is to consider what might have happened had the Politburo replicated the priorities of the Soviet Union, where Mikhail Gorbachev ushered in political openness before fixing the economy. The Soviet empire was gutted as a result, although it did not bring about an end of history or disprove the idea of competing models, contrary to what American scholar Francis Fukuyama thought.

Hu built on the market discipline instilled by former president Jiang Zemin and former premier Zhu Rongji, while the failure of Western economies following the banking collapse accelerated China’s growth path.

A number of governance issues remain outstanding and have to be fixed, though China is unlikely to rush into it. The Chinese are undoubtedly better off than they were 10 years ago, but they bristle at arbitrary controls.

Growth will be self-generating when consumption rises, but the corruption and disregard for the law are a drag on the economy.

In neighbourly relations, defusing the Taiwan issue was an achievement but tensions with Japan and Southeast Asia over disputed islets have created uncertainty. Mobs have been allowed to run riot in Chinese cities. But such dangerous fanning of nationalist sentiments can cut both ways.

Despite all these, the world’s overriding view of China is still that of a nation transformed. For that, President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao can take a bow.