Conspiracy theories: Half may be worth your attention

It’s a very subtle political game on both sides of the fence. The opposition is trying to undermine the government’s credibility with a frontal censure motion. The government is hitting back with a draft-dodging charge against the opposition leader.

And in the middle of the political battle is the war between two retired generals on opposing sides of the political spectrum. This is creating a new round of fear of a confrontation between those for and against Thaksin Shinawatra.

It’s the old showdown all over again.

The opposition, led by the Democrat Party, has tendered its new no-confidence motion targetting Premier Yingluck and a few other Cabinet members. The debate is scheduled for November 25-26.

If timing is everything in politics, the date for a new anti-government rally, the signing by Defence Minister Sukampol Suwannathat of a document that strips Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva of his military rank, and a second rally called by Pitak Siam Group leader General Boonlert Kaewprasit carry very special significance indeed.

As soon as the opposition submitted the censure motion to the Parliament speaker, Pheu Thai MPs said they would ask the Constitutional Court to rule on whether Abhisit, having been stripped of his military rank, could legitimately be proposed as an alternative premier under the constitutional clause governing censure debate. 

Some ruling party members have already called upon Abhisit to show his “sense of responsibility” by quitting as MP – which means the no-confidence debate against the premier would effectively be neutralised.

That, in simple terms, means the government is countering the opposition’s move with a pre-emptive strike.

The defence minister said he signed the paper to strip Abhisit of his military rank because a committee set up to investigate him had confirmed that the opposition leader had falsified military registration documents when applying for a job as a lecturer at Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. The lecturing job, in turn, allowed him to be exempted from military conscription back in 1987.

Abhisit has said he will seek a judicial review of the defence minister’s action against him.

The Democrats inevitably see this as an attempt by the government to discredit their leader, in the hope of considerably weakening the case against the premier. The government retaliated by arguing that the two incidents weren’t related to each other – and that the Abhisit case had been on the drawing board long before the censure motion was mooted.

Of course, if you read between the lines, there could be some truth in both sides of the contention. But under the prevailing political mood, facts don’t really matter; you are either with one of them and against the other, regardless of what the issue is or what arguments are used to back it up.

Now, retired general Boonlert has called a second rally against the government on November 24, after the first one a few weeks ago produced a bigger-than-expected turnout of protesters. This time around, he says, he hopes one million people will turn up to call for the ouster of the government.

Almost immediately, another retired general, Chaisith Shinnawatra, a former Army chief, gathered his former classmates from the Army Cadet School to declare in a press conference that they would assemble people to hold a counter-rally against General Boonlert’s gathering.

Will the censure debate take place? 

The answer is yes. 

Will Abhisit resign as MP? 

Definitely not.

Will Premier Yingluck answer the strongly-worded accusations against her? Yes, she will, but with the support of an army of eloquent MPs led by her deputy, Chalerm Yoobamrung, who will also be staging his own “counter-censure” debate against the Democrats. The premier will demonstrate how adept she is at delegating difficult tasks.

Will General Boonlert’s protesters and General Chaisith’s anti-protest protesters clash? Not likely. The two in fact are old chums and have probably been negotiating the logistics of the rallies on the phone. Both groups will of course stage shows of force. But they won’t collide.

Will anything change as a result? 

The answer is: Are you kidding?