The New Year looms frighteningly
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There are three weeks to go before New Year arrives, but some executives of foreign companies have already left the office and will return only after the end of December. They have jobs that most of us envy, having so much time to unwind after the long ye
As the year ends, many people with savings are busy looking for the best long-term equity funds or retirement mutual funds, to reduce their tax burden. Many have already ordered cars, before the government’s first-buyer scheme ends. Some individuals and companies are busy looking at lists of charitable organisations, to see if donations to them can be tax deductible.
To some, the New Year is full of promises. Like many other countries in Asia, Thailand’s economic outlook is bright. Brokerage houses forecast the SET index to surpass 1,400 points next year. Though the baht may appreciate against the US dollar the economy as a whole should show grow by 4-5 per cent. That’s a big growth rate, considering that the euro zone will show a contraction.
Next year, labourers nationwide will enjoy a big wage hike, while many young workers may land a new job with better pay, even in light of the tight labour market in some fields. While engineers fresh from university earn more than Bt20,000 a month, a seasoned graphic designer can make as much as Bt50,000 now, according to a pay survey released last week. Some accountants can make Bt200,000 a month. Some may look forward to starting a new and better-paid job next year.
Yet, not everyone will be that happy. According to the Bank of Thailand’s labour survey, export-oriented manufacturing firms have already downsized their workforces to cope with falling export demand. Needless to say, the US economy will zigzag between optimism and pessimism. To date, it remains unclear whether the Democrats and Republicans can reconcile on the “fiscal cliff”, which could suck some US$600 billion out of the US economy next year and shave the country’s economic growth by as much as 2 per cent.
With prolonged negotiations as well as split opinions among euro-zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund over the previous bailout to Greece, it seems the euro’s day is numbered. Both the IMF and European Central Bank foresee economic contraction next year, but the contraction will be far less worrying than the repercussions of a euro-zone breakup.
In the end, all eyes will remain on China, the engine of growth for Asia and the world. It will be a big challenge for China to rebalance its growth, to reduce its dependence on exports. In addition, rising inequality also poses an acute challenge for the country.
At home, Thais could soon suffer more political conflict, as Pheu Thai renews its bid to amend the Constitution. We well remember that the last attempt brought about heated debate in Parliament as well as public dissent. How this will affect the country and the general mood, particularly when Thailand is falling in the competitiveness rankings, nobody yet knows. Certainly, the power blackout in Koh Samui served as a crucial reminder: Thailand’s infrastructure is still in poor condition, as the political power struggle makes long-term planning impossible. Will renewed fighting affect the planned infrastructure investment that should lift Thailand’s attractiveness among foreign investors?
To a journalist like me, 2013 looms dreadfully. External factors aside, I have to deal with a frightening internal feud. It was just last week that I was officially named the fifth editor of The Nation, which this year celebrated its 42th anniversary. It is a big challenge. On the face of it, a job promotion is always good. But looking at what is coming next year, I feel a heavy burden now. Yes, to all my sources, they should be prepared for frequent calls from me.
To prepare for the new job, I have found myself extremely busy over the past month as the transition kicked off. The what-to-do list is lengthy and I feel that my blood pressure is rising.
For now, I feel I have so little time to relax, let alone time to shop for LTFs or to make donations. Reviewing my resolutions for 2012 is absolutely out of question. Well, that can wait and should wait, given that I believe I have achieved so few things.
Hopefully, I can finish the to-do list in time for 2013. Somehow, late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping set a good example: he said leaders in his time should not worry much about the conflict over territorial claims in the South China Sea, which could be passed on to later generations. The issue had been dead for decades, only to come alive again suddenly.
Still, I believe that we all deserve to anticipate something better to come with the New Year.
