China and Russia growing closer despite mistrust

Chinese media reported last week that China was buying 24 Russian fighter jets and four submarines, making it Beijing’s first large-scale weapons purchase from Moscow in a decade. Observers say the deal, which China hopes to ink by the end of the year, is further proof that Sino-Russian defence cooperation is on the uptick.

One key reason is warming bilateral ties, which hit a high with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow on March 22. It was the first stop on his maiden foreign trip as China’s leader. He and Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed their countries’ ties as “the new type of relations between major powers” and a model for the world. Some 30 energy and other deals were inked.

“China wants to strengthen political ties with Russia, so it has to support Russia’s defence industry by buying its military equipment,” defence expert Song Zhongping said.

Another reason, he said, is China’s keenness in boosting its military might, in view of territorial disputes with neighbours such as Japan and the Philippines.

That Beijing pushed for the arms deal, reportedly worth US$3.5 billion, could also reflect China’s acknowledgement of “shortcomings with its home-grown defence technologies”, analysts say.

Also, Moscow is turning to Beijing for more business after reportedly losing some lucrative military contracts in India – the biggest buyer of Russian military hardware – to Western countries. By selling its new advanced military equipment like the Su-35 jets to China, Russia is getting a free advertising campaign for new potential clients such as Vietnam and the Philippines, said Song.

Russian analysts estimate that China bought about $26 billion worth of Russian arms and technology between 1992 and 2006. Sales slowed after 2003 following a technology theft dispute involving a fighter jet prototype, but picked up in recent years, with the value of new contracts signed last year exceeding $2.3 billion.

But some obstacles that have plagued bilateral defence ties remain, say analysts. Russia is wary that the Chinese will copy and make use of its technology to compete against it in the international arms market. For instance, Russia’s Su-27 fighter jets were reportedly reverse-engineered and produced in bulk as China’s J-11 fighter. The same for the J-15 fighter being tested on China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning. It is rumoured to be based on an Su-33 prototype.

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute last month said China has displaced Britain as the world’s fifth-largest arms exporter, the first time it has made the top five. Russia is ranked second after the United States.

A bigger concern for Russia is the possibility that its weapons and technology might be used against it in a future dispute with China, say observers. In a commentary last week, Harry Kazianis, editor of The Diplomat global current affairs magazine, wrote that Russia must consider the long- term ramifications.

“While Russia and China have cordial relations at the moment, selling some of your most advanced military equipment to a possible future geo-strategic competitor is always a risky proposition,” he said.

But others believe there is less cause for concern this time. Russian defence expert Vasily Kashin said in a report last month that “China’s aircraft engines, which are essentially modified versions of Russian engines, are way too inferior to the originals and China continues to depend on the supply of Russian engines”.

Richard Bitzinger, a military expert at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that if the two powers were to move closer, they could form “an interesting centre of power”.

“It would bring the Russians farther into Asia, and also bolster Chinese military capabilities. That, in turn, would only make Japan and India more nervous about a rising Chinese military power,” he said.

“It would also likely drive a wedge between Russia and India ... (which) have a 50-year history of close military ties.”