Thailand the odd man out in regional big power games

First and foremost is Thailand’s murky political outlook, which remains the biggest impediment to project power in the region. On the surface, it is relatively calm as the government continues its public relations spin through all sorts of media outlets on every issue at every turn. No other government in Thai history has spent billions of baht on public relations to justify government policies, especially bad ones. That explains why the government continues to augment its public relations efforts team domestically. The Pheu Thai Party wants a complete submergence of its views in the public domain. The purpose is to divert domestic and international attention from the real issues of the day. But it can only go so far. 

Deep down, the government is besieged as the new Parliament session is approaching and the anti-government forces are gathering strength. Pheu Thai Party wants to hurriedly push through the Reconciliation Bill and Amnesty Bill to bring Thaksin Shinawatra back as soon as possible. 

History could repeat itself again with bloody street demonstrations and confrontations, if the government continues to move stubbornly without heeding the views of other stakeholders. Near completion of its second year, the ruling party has become arrogant and numb to public criticism. Its members portray themselves as untouchable because they won the election. Several failed policies, especially the rice mortgage scheme, has gone unexplained – with no transparency and accountability, whatsoever.

That helps explain why new political and social movement groups have sprung up, some with no ties to the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship. The Thai Spring and the White Mask phenomenon are new. They were born out of a sense of betrayal by the government in power that has been directly choreographed by Thaksin. He is a fugitive facing a two-year prison sentence for corruption.

These new groups are taking up key issues affecting human security and the country’s fragile future. They are capturing the growing frustration of both urban and rural youth with better education. They are tech savvy and interconnected through social media. In days ahead, they will grow bigger and become self-motivated. Potentially, they are new political forces to be reckoned with.

After her infamous comments in Mongolia, Yingluck and her aides have become sensitive to media comments, especially voices from the non-opposition audience. They want to restrict online freedom and control the flow of information. These days the established media, especially powerful free TV stations, do not stick to the controversial issues of the day. They often mention them in passing but without their usual probing instincts. Even with that kind of light news reporting and references, they were considered intolerable to Yingluck’s close aides and groups of friends. Thousands of community radio channels, especially the unregistered ones, continue to broadcast inciting and hateful speech and information against political opponents, contrary to the state objectives of community building and integration.

Two years have elapsed, and national reconciliation has not moved ahead as the government promised. More needs to be done. Instead, the focus is on first-house and rice mortgage schemes – despite the high start-up costs and negative consequences. But unfortunately, the whole government mechanisms have been tasked to bring Thaksin back home within this year.

Here is a specific case. Thailand and the US have agreed to upgrade their strategic talks to the two plus two 

(foreign and defence) dialogue framework at the ministerial level – similar to the Philippines-US revitalised alliance which was held successfully last year. But due to the perceived incompetence of the Thai participants, the two plus two inaugural meeting was postponed and eventually downgraded to the senior-official level. This allows Permanent Secretary Sihasak Phuangkhetkaew to lead the dialogue. Moreover, a longstanding Thai request for a Yingluck visit to the White House has not yet been realised. Before such a decision is made, the White House has to make sure there would be substantial topics to discuss and exchange. Malaysia, the Philippines and Myanmar did not have such a dilemma.

For nearly two years, Yingluck has gotten away scot-free with her soft and mild-mannered touches, along with empty comments that appealed to the apathetic Thai public. However, all changed after the venomous speech in Ulan Bator, where she criticised the state of Thai democracy, defended her brother, and blamed the military.

Since then the government has reared its ugly head. Media-related authorities have been given instructions to follow and identify outlets critical of the government, especially of Yingluck and her performance. Before Mongolia, she could get away with anything. Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

Previously, Thailand shined, as it was central to the power games, even when its leadership was not perfect. The country muddled through with its national interests protected. Political chaos was rampant throughout the 1970s to 1990s, before Thaksin’s ascension in early 2001 – but it had no contagious effect. Each political disturbance faltered and recurred with few negative consequences. Today, things are different, as the discord has caused chains of reaction and policy shifts detrimental to long-term national interests. Now with a new regional landscape and the much heralded new Asia, Thailand is losing its strategic imperative to neighbours with political stability and fresher outlooks.

Most importantly, the major powers are no longer patient with Thailand’s ambivalence – once the country’s traditional diplomatic asset.