Hard thinking required about Afghanistan

There has been a lot of talk in Washington not just about a rapid reduction in the number of troops from Afghanistan but completely withdrawing American forces from the country after 2014. And if the US pulls out completely, one can be almost certain that international forces will do the same. 

If international forces do withdraw, the international community could see the clock turn back to 1989, like when Soviet troops withdrew from this landlocked country – and the disaster that ensued. Afghan warlords who fought against the Soviets turned their guns on each other. A decade later came the Taleban, who restored some degree of law and order but at absurd cost in terms of human lives, rights and humanitarian law with its skewed version of governance.  

In a situation like that, it did not take long for outside radical Muslim groups to take advantage of the situation. Needless to say, Afghanistan became the home of al-Qaeda and the rest was history.  

US and multinational forces went into Afghanistan to remove the Taleban and al-Qaeda from power after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in America. The world vowed not to abandon the country again, or at least not to permit Afghanistan to become a haven for international terrorists.  

There was a lot of good intention. Money poured into the country to turn this largely tribal society into a modern democratic nation-state.  

But more than a decade later, the Taleban are still active. And now, the US has decided it is time to negotiate with them. 

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, on the other hand, felt that Washington was going behind his back to cut a separate deal with the Taleban. So he broke off negotiations about a long-term US presence in the country because he didn’t like the way things were proceeding between Washington and the Taleban, whose office in Qatar has become a virtual embassy of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”.

Karzai suspected that the US’s real desire was to have a military presence in Afghanistan to strengthen America’s regional standing for purposes beyond the development of Afghanistan, such as the global war against terrorism.

Turned off by Karzai’s outburst, the US is threatening to take up the “zero option”, which would mean walking away from much of the security investment America has made in Afghanistan.

Karzai’s suspicion and accusation may not be entirely wrong, but it seems nonetheless a bit of a textbook whining, not to say that it was somewhat superficial. His country is surrounded by major powers that for centuries have moved their troops in and out of Afghanistan as they criss-cross from the subcontinent to Central Asia and the Middle East.  

Afghanistan has Iran on one side and Pakistan/India on the other side. If Karzai no longer wants to dance with the US and would like to change partners, he should have the courage to say so. But he needs to ask his countrymen if this is the route they want to see Afghanistan take.  

The threat of a complete pull-out may be an attractive negotiating tactic on the US’s part. But 2014 is just a few days away and this is no time to be bluffing one another. Both the US and Afghan leaders need to get serious about the future if they do not want to it become a haven for international terrorists again.