China renews its efforts to re-engage Asean

For the first time, China has come up with a series of schemes for Asean as a whole. Apart from an upgrade of free-trade agreements and strengthening financial cooperation, which has been the hallmark of Asean-China relations, Beijing also seeks to assist Asean in improving its infrastructure – both hardware and software – in all areas with green-oriented strategies. 

Two new areas of Asean-China relations Li proposed deserve attention, as they will affect future ties. One is on maritime cooperation and the other is on extensive people-to-people exchange programmes. 

Although China has already proposed establishing a China-Asean Maritime Partnership for quite some time, Asean has been lukewarm to the idea – mainly due to the impasse in the South China Sea dispute. However, last week’s inaugural meeting in Suzhou on the code of conduct (COC) on the South China Sea produced an air of optimism – according to a Thai senior diplomat, that Asean is now seriously looking into cooperative schemes with China on maritime cooperation. Beijing has allocated 3 billion-yuan (Bt15 billion) for such cooperation.

To serve as an example, Thailand has already put forward two major proposals – on maritime environmental conservation and a study of tuna-stock in the South China Sea. These two confidence-building proposals represent efforts of coordination in regional ties with China. Bangkok also hopes that other members will make use of this fund. Thailand will host the next round of working groups on the South China Sea early next year, which will build on the scope and issues identified last weekend.

Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China has placed emphasis on new forms of diplomacy. Obviously, most global media attention has essentially focused on US-China relations, especially in the aftermath of the Obama-Xi summit in California. The new rapport of the leaders and their countries’ stronger ties has already rendered positive impacts on the regional strategic environment. 

During the preparatory discussion in Bandar Seri Begawan last week on the upcoming East Asia Summit, there was a better atmosphere in addressing the themes of the leaders-only strategic forum. 

While the EAS in early October will zero in on developmental issues, as suggested by China, other themes would include regional and security issues. Food and energy security, humanitarian and disaster relief and management, as well as the threat of pandemics, have been identified and will top the EAS agenda.

Asean welcomes China’s initiative on people-to-people and cultural exchanges. This is the most tangible proposal on China’s intention to promote understanding and cooperation of the younger generation of China and Asean to ensure appreciation of their mutual histories and cultures. 

The most remarkable development has been the growing number of tourists and students criss-crossing China and Asean. Last year nearly 11 million Chinese visited Asean out of 83 million travelling overseas. 

More Chinese are coming to the region, therefore knowledge of China and putonghua (Chinese Mandarin) has become an indispensable tool. At the moment, nearly 70,000 Asean students are studying in China, while 110,000 Chinese are taking classes in the region. The number of Asean students will increase with 15,000 scholarships from the Chinese government — the largest single offer from any government to Asean. 

In his speech, Li addressed the South China Sea issue at the very beginning without mincing any words, knowing full well its significance. 

Therefore, it is not hard to predict future moves on negotiation related to the code of conduct for the South China Sea. Both Asean and China will emphasise a “step-by-step” and “consensus” approach in working on binding principles to prevent conflict and secure peace and stability in the South China Sea. 

How long this process will take is beyond prediction for now. However, two factors would serve as a barometer – the strength of their growing economic interdependence and the political will of all concerned parties. By 2020, China hopes to have invested US$150 billion, while the two-way trade could hit $1 trillion, up from $55 billion in 2002 and $400 billion in 2012. If the momentum since March can be sustained and expanded, the Asean-China relationship could be further consolidated, facilitating the COC process.