Engaging the US in a time of crisis: Obama's sweep through Asean

When Obama came to power four years ago, he was lucky to have Hilary Rodham Clinton as Secretary of State, as she played a major role in demonstrating that the US attention on Asia was more than skin-deep. She made the region her priority throughout her tenure. In 2009, she signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and patiently took part in all Asean-led meetings and won the admiration of Asean leaders, hiking the US profile as a key guarantor of peace and stability in the region. However, this positive imprint is wearing thin these days in this part of the world where personal touch and rapport matter.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is returning to Asia, following Obama. Despite his Vietnam credentials and history and his diplomatic credentials in the Congress, he has not been connected with the regional scheme of things. He has been too busy carrying out shuttle diplomacy throughout Europe and the Middle East and won accolades for countering Russia’s diplomatic offences in Syria and Iran. In the foreseeable future, it will give rise to concerns of inconsistency in US policies towards the region. Washington is in dire need of a Clinton-style personality and diplomacy.

Fortunately in Southeast Asia, the US is not on a head-on collision with Russia. More importantly, Moscow is not focusing on the region as it should be despite the desire to strengthen Asean-Russia relations and taking part in the grouping’s connectivity master plan in the Far East. His assertion that Russia is also an Asia-Pacific power remains rhetoric. Since the East Asia Summit (EAS) expanded to include US and Russia in 2011, no Russian president has showed up. Same with the upcoming EAS in Bandar Seri Begawan. As of now, while the US and Russia continue to squabble over Syria, another major power, China, is being left very much alone to consolidate its regional diplomacy. 

Not surprisingly, China’s new Foreign Minister Wang Yi has wisely maximised this window of opportunity. He visited the Asean region three times in five months since his appointment in late March. His personalised diplomacy works well, a departure from his stoic predecessor Yang Jiechi. Good rapport between leaders has enabled Asean and China to renew engagement and make progress on overall relations and the work on the code of conduct (COC) in South China Sea. To top it all, Beijing recently initiated a people-centred foreign policy towards Asean. 

In more ways than one, this new regional and international dynamic will have direct impact on the region, in particular the EAS. Both the US and China are active in shaping the EAS agenda this time around. As the premier leaders-only forum in the region, they want their concerns of the day to be discussed. 

 Gone are the days when Asean could set the agenda as it wished. Now the tide has turned. Consultation with EAS members is pivotal as a means to increase engagement with the major powers, especially the US. In addition, the EAS has already become the main forum where a new regional security architecture is being discussed and constructed.

From the US perspective, security issues including the elimination of chemical weapons, nuclear non-proliferation and the reactivation of North Korean nuclear programme should be on the EAS agenda. Washington hopes that Asean and other EAS members would share a similar concern on these topics. Asean members have expressed support for the US-Russia agreement to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons. Thailand issued the strongest endorsement of efforts to eliminate the chemical weapons.

Taking the cue from Asean, China is taking a different track with a development agenda such as bridging the income gap and poverty alleviation. Food and energy security, disaster management and dealing with pandemics are also common Asean-China themes. Obviously, both sides want to limit discussions on the maritime conflict at the EAS as the COC process between Asean and China has made progress. 

As in the previous EAS, other non-Asean members such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, India or New Zealand could raise any regional issue their leaders see fit. As the current Asean chair, Brunei fervently hopes that the tone and scope of EAS discussions this year would be friendlier but candid. The EAS leaders will have only two and half hours of discussions to make their points; there will no opening or ending remarks.