Mindanao violence could recur

The authorities in Manila have announced that the three-week security crisis in Mindanao is over, with almost 200 hostages rescued. But it seems the incident has been brought to a conclusion only temporarily, and there is no guarantee that violence wil not flare up again.

Fierce fighting between government troops and Muslim rebels began on September 9, when more than 600 members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), led by Nur Misuari, stormed coastal villages near Zamboanga City and took hostages. At least 202 people were killed, including 12 civilians and 23 security officials.

The incident occurred as Manila is engaged in a peace process with another Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). This peace pact is fragile. The government and the MILF are working against time constraints to make the peace last.

The fighting in Zamboanga forced more than 100,000 people to flee their homes. The government has said all the displaced people will be able to return home as the situation gets back to normal. However, that assurance might not turn out to be practical, since 10,000 houses were damaged or destroyed during the violence. The government might need a comprehensive post-conflict solution to help them. 

Moreover, following the Zamboanga battle, the authorities in Manila now have a lot of homework to do in terms of establishing permanent peace in the southern region of the country. 

For nearly half a century there has been an on-and-off conflict between the government and rebel Muslim Moro factions. In the past the MNLF has in fact reached peace agreements with the government. However the MILF is a breakaway faction of the MNLF, and it has been the case that, once the government has reached a truce with one group, the other will create trouble. The MILF separated from the MNLF in 1977 because it couldn’t accept the conditions of the peace pact the MNLF signed in 1976. History has now repeated itself with the MNLF attacks in Zamboanga. The MNLF is dissatisfied with the peace process between the government and the MILF, which began in October last year.

Misuari’s MNLF agreed to a peace settlement in 1996, but negotiations have been stalled since 2011 due to disagreement over sharing wealth. Misuari has called on the government to honour the 1996 agreement rather than undertake a new one with another group.

The latest incident might force the government in Manila to map out a new plan for a comprehensive peace process that will be able to cover all the different groups. It might not be possible to combine all the groups under a sole peace pact, so the government should draw up plans to accommodate every group into the process. A good plan should leave nobody isolated.

The Muslim Moro themselves should explore the possibility of uniting all the factions, to speak with one voice, and to compromise in order to save the lives of fellow Muslims in Mindanao. The five-decade conflict has already killed more than 200,000 people and left the southern region of Mindanao underdeveloped. Surely the time has come to say enough is enough.