To some, this looks like another election crisis, with Hun Sen remaining in power. But this may not be the end of story, as an awakened citizenry refuses to play along. Integrated with the world, many Cambodians have become too aware, too sophisticated, to accept the rule of an elite that relies on force and steals the fortunes of the country while trampling on individual rights.
Cambodians have multiple ties to the world that have helped open space to demonstrate a broader vision. Especially powerful have been the softest of soft powers – the renaissance of dance, the lumbering example of a war crimes tribunal and even the luxury of dual citizenship. Few of these would be considered in the traditional category of foreign strategies for helping countries create “building blocks for free and fair elections”.
Culture, always Cambodia’s strong suit, has been an impetus behind changed attitudes. After decades of war and genocidal revolution, the arts have taken on a greater role, helping Cambodians face a hideous past of the Khmer Rouge and recover pride in their own traditions. Along the way, this new cultural confidence has allowed them to cast a critical eye on the authoritarian Hun Sen regime.
Outside ties have been essential in this cultural renaissance. Last year Cambodian tourism broke all previous records, earning US$2.2 billion, with 3.6 million visitors. Tourism even bested Cambodia’s combined exports of $1.4 billion, largely textiles. Fuelling both sectors was foreign direct investment of $1.6 billion. The top foreign investors were Asian: South Korea, China, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Cambodia’s growth rate remains high at 10 per cent. The beneficiaries of that growth have largely been Cambodia’s business elites, with strong, often family ties to top government officials who write contracts and create economic opportunities and economic zones. Most have been in power with Hun Sen for a quarter of a century.
Many officials as well as the business elite have become millionaires while the country’s per capita income is still $909. That inequity is no longer a secret, with access to reports and documents, underscored during the election campaign.
Cambodia’s human rights advocates have been at the centre of calls for honest elections. They received protection two years ago from then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who successfully protested the government’s attempt to pass a law that would have blocked non-governmental organisations. Without Clinton’s intervention, those NGOs may well have been mute in the election. Instead, they were raucous. One standout campaign video featured trucks transporting huge loads of illegally cut timber under the protection of the government.
Dual citizenship allowed by the country also helps. Some of today’s bravest advocates of open society, honest government and elections are Cambodians who carry foreign and Cambodian passports, providing them with some extra protections that locals lack.
Another indirect influence could be the much-maligned Khmer Rouge tribunal in Phnom Penh. Created by the UN in partnership with a reluctant Cambodian government, the court has been hearing the case against Khmer Rouge leaders for more than six years. The tribunal has demonstrated that justice, however delayed, is possible in Cambodia.
Sam Rainsy and his party are using non-violent tactics to force an investigation into the election. They hold rallies and peace strikes. Demonstrators are invited to bring picnic dinners, and at one event, the organizers showed the film “Gandhi” to illustrate the power of non violence.
In the face of this disciplined non-violence, the government deployed heavily armed soldiers and one incident resulted in wounding several and killing one young man.
The ballet of duelling press conferences has begun. But the playbook has changed. Cambodians are far less likely to accept Hun Sen’s promises, and say so in social media. Foreign partners are watching, worried about their investments. Cambodian human rights groups have appealed to foreign governments and the UN to demand the government resist using “violence, threats and intimidation”. If Hun Sen attempts to keep parliament in session without reaching a compromise with opposition members, it may not only hurt his political fortunes but Cambodia’s economic and social stability.
Elizabeth Becker is a former New York Times correspondent and senior foreign editor at National Public Radio. She is the author of When The War Was Over, a history of the Khmer Rouge and modern Cambodia.
The Whitney and Betty MacMillan Centre for International and Area Studies at Yale University.