Prayut has everything to lose in a 'secret meeting'

It’s a myth. Within months of a coup, rumours will start circulating about a secret deal between the military generals and Thaksin Shinawatra. The latest senior military figure to be subjected to intense political gossip is Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, whose recent trip to China triggered all kinds of speculation.

Although Prawit went to China for private discussions with bureaucrats there, the trip was still semi-official – he was reportedly invited by the Beijing government. And, since both Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra were in China about the same time, it didn’t seem to matter how “official” Prawit’s trip was. He was immediately suspected of meeting the pair to negotiate a political deal, though the rumour-mongers have been unclear about the details.

Prawit joined a growing list of Armed Forces generals who’ve been deemed Thaksin’s unwavering allies or foes-turned-secret-friends. Former Army chief Anupong Paochinda was never able to shake off deep suspicion about his possible connections with the exiled former premier. To a lesser degree, Gen Saphrang Kalayanamitr was subjected to similar doubt despite his tough attitude after the 2006 coup. That coup’s leader, Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, is the first name on everybody’s lips when it comes to a political U-turns. He decided to play parliamentary politics, sought to appease Thaksin’s political party and became a staunch advocate of the divisive blanket political amnesty.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of this year’s coup, was quick to deny that Prawit had gone to meet Thaksin and Yingluck in China, saying legal charges could not be settled that way. But even Prayut is powerless to stop rumours about a pro-Thaksin secret arrangement. In fact, Prayut himself was subjected to similar suspicion only a few weeks after his coup in May.

A lot of today’s developments may have to do with the interim Parliament’s decision to start impeachment procedures against Yingluck. A guilty verdict from the legislature wouldn’t land her in jail but it could see her banned from politics for five years. Yet the big question is what kind of bargaining is possible, since kick-starting the impeachment procedures doesn’t give the interim Parliament many options. A “not guilty” verdict would render Prayut’s coup all but nonsensical.

Then there is the issue of credibility. Evidence such as hidden-camera photos or secretly recorded conversations proving Prawit did met Thaksin would destroy domestic support for Prayut’s coup. Whether or not half of Thailand backs Prayut, such evidence of even an attempt on Prayut’s part to strike a deal would undermine his political stability and reform agenda.

In short, political logic doesn’t call for Prayut taking such a risk. Political rivals routinely meet to hammer out deals, but having one of the most senior officials of his interim government sneak off to meet Thaksin – and then denying such a meeting took place – would be a gravely hazardous strategy. 

These days, when a secretly taped conversation can go global in seconds, a Prawit-Thaksin meeting would be suicidal for the current premier and imperil the former. 

The last thing Prayut needs is for his coup to be perceived – if not confirmed – as part of a power play. Prawit is the most senior of the three Burapha Phayuk (Eastern Tiger) “brothers” of the military hierarchy. A secret deal between him and Thaksin would devastate the Armed Forces.