Navy's submarine acquisition plan can wait

Here we go again. The talk of purchasing submarines has effectively resurfaced now after the plan to purchase two second-hand submarines during the Yingluck Shinawatra government did not materialise.

Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan has given the Navy the green light to conduct a new study of submarine types and prices, according to Navy chief Admiral Kraisorn Chansuwanich. 

During the previous administration, the then Defence Minister Air Chief Marshal Sukampol Suwannathat had thrown the ball in the court of the Royal Thai Navy and asked them to explain to the Yingluck Cabinet and the public why the procurement of the submarines was necessary. 

For the past two decades or so, the Navy has been trying to procure submarines. The closest it ever came was in 1995 when the government approved the proposal to purchase three submarines for US$800 million. Sweden’s Kockums Gotland Class was to be selected. But then came the so-called Tom Yam Kung crisis, and that was that. 

A plan to purchase about 300 armoured personnel carriers also met the same fate. The financial crisis took its toll on everybody, including the country’s top security brass who were looking to modernise their inventory with new toys but do virtually nothing in terms of downsizing troops to make it leaner and meaner – more professional with superior military capability.

Most of the military budget is going towards dead-end items – pension, retirement, salary, etc. While these are important, none of it really improves the country’s defence capability. 

More money needs to be spent on training and enhancing their capacity with new equipment. But for that something has to give. And that would mean having fewer ‘star’ generals.From a military point of view and outlook, one has to look decades ahead and predict what kind of security environment and challenges the country will be facing. Of course, unlike the Cold War era when the “enemies” were clearly defined, in today’s world where everybody is supposed to be friends with each other, one has to be more subtle about defining security challenges. 

In this respect, the Navy is seeking submarines for several reasons. One is to maintain the balance of power in the region where significant submarine procurement activities have taken place in recent years. Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia have been making moves in this area. 

Of course, there is the need to protect the natural resources in the Gulf of Thailand. The development of a new deep-sea port in Dawei in Myanmar is also another point of interest. Security on the Andaman Sea will also have to be beefed up. 

But one has to wonder if this is the right time to be talking about more procurement of military hardware when the country is going through a major political crisis that seems to have no end in sight.

The Tom Yam Kung crisis led to the shelving of a number of projects because there was not enough money to spend. 

The current crisis may not be financial. Nevertheless, the military can’t just look at it from the financial point of view. The feelings of the people also count.

If anything, this move will send a wrong signal to the general Thai public. Thai security planners are currently running the country with little in terms of checks and balances. Do they want to be seen as taking advantage of the situation by going on a spending spree? Or perhaps they don’t really care what the people think?