A small step forward in Ukraine

A ceasefire deal between Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Moscow rebel forces that was reached late last week is scheduled to go into effect today.
But in the short period after that, forces on both sides clashed viciously to gain new ground and fortify their positions in this bitter 10-month-long conflict that has drained so much resources and human lives. Friday’s clashes left eight government soldiers dead.
The ceasefire was reached after marathon negotiations that involved European leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The ceasefire is to be monitored by the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). According to German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur, satellites, radar and drones will be used to monitor the ceasefire along the 2,000-kilometre-long Ukrainian border with Russia.
But one has to wonder if this monitoring mission is enough. It’s one thing to look at images from far away but it’s entirely another level of commitment to put boots on the ground to ensure that the terms of the ceasefire are not violated. The OSCE has come this far. Perhaps they can take that extra step.
The conflict is between separatists from a Russian-speaking region of Ukraine who favour ties with Russia over Ukraine’s pro-Western government.
According to a United Nations estimate, about 5,400 people have been killed in this conflict and more than 1 million have been displaced.
The conflict also pitted Russia against the West to a level that was too familiar during the Cold War era.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko didn’t mince any words when he said he is not naive and that the two sides are “still a very long way from peace”.
He has reasons not to be too optimistic given the fact that it wasn’t that different from the deal last September that quickly fell apart. The accord basically grants rebel-held territories more self-rule.
While most are certain this is not enough to end the conflict, no one knows what kind of concessions both sides are willing to make. Until that’s clear, the Western countries that back Ukraine are likely to maintain their sanctions against Russia.
Nothing will change if the West is not convinced that Moscow is living up to its end of the deal. In this respect, all sides must respect whatever agreements they have reached, or risk retreating even further in this diplomatic tussle.
The thing that got the French and German leaders to hastily arrange this summit was the growing talk in the United States and elsewhere that the West should send arms to help Ukraine.
But modern weapons don’t only come with instructions. They come with instructors who are required to be on the ground with the people who will be using them. Hollywood has produced all sorts of movies with this kind of storyline.
Needless to say, such measures are counter-productive as they will escalate the conflict, not to mention that Russia, which shares a common border with Ukraine, could do the same – with its own set of advisers, instructors and weapons – and with more efficiency and effectiveness.
Some lawmakers in the US are trying to use humanitarian language to justify the need to arm Ukraine. Senator John McCain compared the conflict to the Berlin Airlift. But the western plains were not carrying weapons but food for the Germans in west Berlin so that they would remain free of Soviet occupation.
Moreover, Berlin was strategically important for the US and the West. The same can’t be said for Ukraine or any of its cities.
Arming Ukrainians won’t change the equation. The West has to help Ukraine succeed as a vibrant and thriving nation. It could be an example for the rest of the former Soviet republics and the entire region for that matter.