National interest must be at the core of defence policies
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Junta leaders must not allow a bruised ego to dictate changes in defence procurements
Thailand is looking to diversify its arms procurement and military hardware but the junta has yet to convince the public that they are doing it for the good of the nation.
Theoretically, diversifying military procurement is not a bad idea as it makes the country less dependent on any one particular nation or supplier.
But if the government does not have the interest of the nation at the centre of its policy and planning, then the outcome could be disastrous for the country’s Armed Forces who will be left to deal with unfamiliar military hardware.
The issue of diversification of procurement comes amid talks of rapidly growing ties between Thailand and Russia. We are not talking about handshakes and official visits but two-way barter trade and military hardware procurement that Bangkok is looking to secure.
According to recent reports, Russian Commerce Minister Denis Manturov, a key member of the Russian delegation that accompanied Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Thailand last week, said Moscow has high hopes for future relations with Bangkok, especially in the area of two-way trade.
In the pipeline are rail services, military aircraft, and the sale of three Sukhoi Superjet transport planes to Thailand, with the shipment expected late next year.
Russia is reportedly planning to buy at least 80,000 tonnes of rubber from Thailand early next year, four times what it had agreed to buy, in a government-to-government deal that would benefit Russia’s automotive-tyre industry and poor Thai rubber tappers.
Needless to say, the moves come amid a sharp decline in relations between the United States and the ruling junta in Bangkok, which came to power through a coup in May last year.
Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha maintains that the shift towards Russia’s military weapons was not a reaction against the United States.
But given the political atmosphere between Washington and Bangkok, it is not difficult to see how this feeling has shaped the junta’s decision.
Political insiders and military strategists said the shift was the junta’s way of showing disapproval of Washington’s attitude towards the coup in Thailand.
Casual observers of military modernisation could tell you that any military procurement projects must be in line with the existing main military platform and inventory because too many types of hardware could complicate maintenance and operation.
They would also tell you that military modernisation and upgrade requires policy-makers and defence planners to look two decades ahead and project what kind of security challenges the country might face.
In this respect, making decisions based on emotion rather than sound military strategy and a solid procurement policy should be a point of concern because these actions will have long-term consequences.
In this respect, the current junta leaders should consult a wide range of people, including their subordinates who will be the military leaders in the future, about any major shift or a complete overhaul of military weapons and hardware from one supplier to another.
Not only is this a potential technical headache for the people who will be using these weapons, it is also a very costly endeavour, financially speaking.
Thailand and the United States have been through thick and thin over the past half a century. From the Cold War era to the age of regionalism, both countries have enjoyed mutual respect and generally good relations.
But because Washington didn’t have anything nice to say about the May 2014 coup, the current junta wants to implement some major changes that will affect the security foundation and arrangement of the country, seemingly unmindful of the fact that the new course could lead us into uncharted territory.
Already, there are talks of beefing up Sino-Thai Defence and Security Consultation with the introduction of a joint Thai-Chinese marine and air force military exercise.
Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, at the invitation of the Chinese military, visited China last week. But at home, no Western diplomats want to have their picture taken with him.
Nevertheless, for the sake of Thailand’s security future and international standing, the junta needs to put its ego aside and put national interest at the centre of its policy and strategy.
These generals may be here today. But they need to understand that sooner or later, the mandate will return to the people. And a new government with a mandate from the people could reverse the things that the junta had done while in power.
It wouldn’t have to be this way if they put the country’s interest at the centre of their decision-making process.
