US LACKS COHERENT POLICIES on Thailand

Marciel’s visit was better received than that of Daniel Russel, Assistant State Secretary for East Asia and Pacific, who provoked harsh criticism from the Thai side over his remarks on the political situation here.

Besides meetings with Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Norachit Sihaseni, and Permanent Secretary for Defense, General Sirichai Disakul, Marciel also met with representatives of Thai political parties and stakeholders as well as American businessmen – but without news headlines. These days, any report on Thai- US relations would be either controversial or negative.

It is interesting to note that when Russel visited Bangkok, it coincided with the visit of Chinese senior defense officials. This time around, Marciel’s trip came during the visit of Xu Qiliang, vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, following hot on the heels of Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Pravit Wongsuwan to Beijing two weeks earlier. The frequency of Thai-Chinese high-level visits is the new hallmark of their relations.

Obviously, the purpose and approach of Marciel’s and Qiliang’s visits were quite different. Washington expressed its concern and continued to tell the Thais what they needed to do to improve the current situation. Beijing also told the Thais what could be done, especially at this juncture, to strengthen the bilateral relations further. Therefore, the Thai-China comfort level has shot up several fold.

After the Obama administration’s recent nomination of Glyn Davies as the new American envoy to Thailand, the US Senate has yet to approve his ambassadorship. Nobody can tell when the Senate will do that. However, any further delay would not bode well with current Thai-US ties. The Thais expected the new envoy to be in the capital before July 4, the national day of the United States. The annual reception on that day is a special event that marks the state of Thai-US relations.

During Marciel’s call on the Defense Ministry, he reiterated that the annual Cobra-Gold next year is on schedule. Prior to his visit, news about the postponement of preparatory discussion for the annual military exercise fuelled further rumours of next year’s possible cancellation. Due to US domestic circumstances and the lame-duck nature of Obama’s last-term administration, there is nothing much the US government can do to boost bilateral ties unless Thailand has an elected government. 

Looking ahead, the future of US ties with the region’s oldest friend continues to face obstacles. The US assessment of human trafficking and slave labour in Thailand will come out in June. Early indications from US policy and lawmakers were clear that Thailand would still be falling short of making satisfactory improvements to the overall condition. Last week, in his written testimony to the House Committee for Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organisations, Mark Lagon, president of New York-based Freedom House, recommended that Thailand’s tier 3 ranking be sustained if the country does not show strong willingness to take corrective action.

In addition, the long-delayed annual US State Department report on human rights will be released later this week that could put Thailand in a hard place again due to increased rights violations both before and after the lifting of martial law. In previous years, the report criticised the harsh punishment of the lese majestic law and continued suppression of freedom of expression and assembly. This year’s report could be worse.

Despite all the gloomy talk, the Foreign Ministry highlighted one item of good news – a compliment from US Senator, Orrin Hatch, from Utah, who issued a statement to the US Senate on the eve of the 60th birthday of Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn recently. The respected America lawmaker called her “Princess Angel” and praised her achievements in helping the disadvantaged people in Thailand – following in the footsteps of her father, His Majesty the King. Truth be told, apart from Hatch, Thailand does not have a lawmaker in either the US Congress or the Senate to speak on its behalf. Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia have strong groups of advocates in Congress.

In contrast, Thai-China relations are on an upward swing, befitting the 40th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. China has followed a three-pronged approach. First, China’s policy towards Thailand has been consistent as it continues to support any Thai government in power and its endeavours without any preconditions. As such, it enables the sustainability of existing policies. Second, China has chosen to accelerate both economic and security cooperation with Thailand at this transitional period. For the time being, closer defense cooperation has been the biggest achievement. Third, Beijing seeks to strengthen multilateral security cooperation with other nations, including the US. China’s participation in the Cobra Gold military exercises represents its hallmark of a broader security approach. Last year, China’s warships took part for the first time in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise, a US-led multinational naval drill.

At this juncture, sensing good opportunities, China has moved fast in forging closer security ties with Thailand. Beijing so far has done so without challenging the Thai-US alliance. That explains why Bangkok feels comfortable engaging with Beijing on a variety of security programmes, especially on the latter’s willingness to provide military-industrial and dual-use technology.

It remains to be seen how Thailand’s relations with the US and China will play themselves out in the future – strategically in particular. One development is inevitable – there is no turning back the progress made on the Thai-China relations during this transitional period.