Confrontation looms as two fortresses rise in South China Sea
Play
In just two years, China has poured billions of dollars into reclamation work and military structures on three reefs in the contested Spratlys, implying that it is there to stay.
Recently it warned the United States not to attempt to stop the construction, or “there will be war”. China needs oil badly. Without it, a slowdown of its economic growth may trigger a mammoth recession. It knows there is oil in the Spratlys, otherwise it would not risk billions of dollars and war for the island chain. To extract oil, China needs military security. Without militarisation in a volatile place claimed by other nations, extraction can be disrupted.
A US Poseidon P8 surveillance plane (a “submarine hunter”) recently braved eight warnings from China to report dredging that has reclaimed 800 hectares from the sea at the Fiery Cross Reef, as well as military barracks and piers rising 300 metres from the seabed, and search radars. A commercial plane was also warned by Chinese authorities to move away.
Taiwan Strait choke-point
The United States is so far wary of confronting China over its militarisation of the Spratlys’ reefs, but if China closes the Taiwan Strait, vital shipping lanes will be disrupted and it will be America’s turn to warn “there will be war”. Japan may also be a willing combatant since most of its precious imported oil passes through the Taiwan Strait. Remember that when Egypt tried to close the Suez Canal, a vital shipping lane, the United States and Britain were quick to move in.
What would make China close the Taiwan Strait? For one, regaining Taiwan is a continuing obsession for Beijing. But even if that is too risky to go to war over, if there is a military confrontation within a 1,000-kilometre radius, which includes the Spratlys, closing the Taiwan Strait choke-point would shield the Chinese mainland from attackers. It would take 24 hours for China to close the strait, simply by laying thousands of mines.
US response
Right now, the United States and Japan are working feverishly to install a defence system for the Luzon Strait, between the Philippines and Taiwan, in case the Taiwan Strait is closed. But the proximity of this defence system to the Chinese mainland makes it a target for pre-emptive strikes from Chinese forces.
The potential for a confrontation in the Spratlys remains considerable. US spy planes have defied China’s warnings to stay away. Chinese warplanes have threatened even commercial flights against making overflights. The Eagle and the Dragon have been playing footsy for the last decade, daring and defying each other, testing the waters, employing brinkmanship. One false move, one trigger-happy pilot could, in theory, trigger World War III in the blink of an eye. China knows its navy is vastly inferior to that of the US, but its arms programme has delivered key “asymmetric weapons” including high-tech, easy-to-build missiles that can take out carrier fleets – a slingshot against the Goliath, a critical equaliser against a superior foe.
The looming US-China confrontation in the Asia-Pacific is an energy war for China. But for America, it is an economic war, a struggle to maintain trading partners like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. America wants a piece of the Asian-economy pie, which currently boasts the fastest growth rate in a world struggling with a Europe in decline. Thus, America’s grand plan is the Asia “pivot” – to shift 70 per cent of its naval forces to the Asia-Pacific and “encircle” and isolate its economic rival, China.
The answer to if and when a war will break out is governed by these considerations. Right now, the protagonists remain unwilling to rock the boat. The stakes are too high. But if the level of despair and desperation were to rise due to an energy crisis in China, or an American economic meltdown, war could easily follow.
Philippine President Benigno Aquino has been rattling his sabre, knowing the Americans are behind him. That may be a good or a bad geopolitical move. We may be putting ourselves in the crossfire of a deadly confrontation between giants, the outcome of which is unpredictable. Will the United States step in if China massacres Filipinos in the Spratlys? Not necessarily. The answer would depend on US interests, which are the real basis of Washington’s decisions. If China destroys the Seventh Fleet, would Subic and Clark bear the brunt of a retaliation? The United States has reportedly been using Clark Field lately in its surveillance of the Spratlys.
We are in the middle of it all. Now, how does that line in the cloak-and-dagger movies go? If you are caught, I will disavow any relationship with you.
