IRAN COULD HELP turn the tables on the jihadists
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ONCE AN AGREEMENT IS REACHED ON TEHRAN'S NUCLEAR PLANS, ITS STRATEGIC AID IN PACIFYING THE MIDDLE EAST IS URGENTLY NEEDED
Several more days remain in negotiations between Iran and the world’s five major powers over the fate of that country’s nuclear programme, but many observers are claiming the deal is already secured, and they have shifted focus to its potential impact on regional security and the oil market. The price of crude oil is expected to drop if economic sanctions on Iran can be eased.
As much as agreement on Iran’s nuclear future would both improve its state of affairs and calm fears in the West, several key issues are outstanding that curtail optimism for peace in the Middle East. Ominously, these factors are beyond the control of the West or the Iranians.
In Tehran, a pact allowing Iran to proceed with peaceful nuclear plans might lessen the vehemence with which the US – famously dubbed “the Great Satan” by its mullahs – is regarded. Yet the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better thanks to the continuing chaos in the region, where Iran has ended up as one of the most stable of nations.
A nuclear deal would make it possible for Tehran to participate in discussions with the Western powers about the region’s future and specifically the regimes and militia groups it supports. The government of President Hassan Rouhani would be empowered with fresh political capital, possibly enough to give it the clout denied previous administrations by the country’s religious clerics.
Iranian voters have demonstrated a tendency to elect progressive-minded leaders, but these politicians have always laboured under the yoke of the venerated mullahs who maintain a fundamentalist, reactionary view of the world.
Now, though, Iran’s help would be invaluable in combating the extremist Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). It’s a common cause
around which Tehran and the West could unite. Iran wants neighbouring Iraq rid of the violent ISIL and it knows the US-led coalition cannot defeat the ISIL by air strikes alone.
Joint combat operations involving Iran remain unlikely as long as the West refuses to call Iran an ally, but the coalition’s chances in battle would surely improve if there were strategic coordination with Tehran, and that now appears possible in the near future as the fighting in Iraq intensifies.
The struggle against the Islamic militants is a different game in Syria, however. Iran remains unwavering in its support for the government of Bashar al-Assad, and the US displays the same stubbornness in its intention to oust him. Neither side is currently prepared to yield on this subject, but we hope that they soon see the sense in forging a compromise. Resolution in Syria cannot be achieved without Iranian involvement. Iran’s weight in that part of the world is just too substantial to ignore.
Also in need of awakening to this reality are Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, as well as governments across North Africa. They will continue to fret over Iran’s “expansionist” foreign policy and its sponsorship of militant groups of its own choosing, but they must see that the end is near for Riyadh’s “chequebook diplomacy” approach to peacekeeping in the Muslim world. By now, hopefully, Saudi Arabia is recognising that money can buy you some friends, but not everyone.
Quite apart from soothing worries about an atomic showdown, a nuclear agreement between the West and Iran would open channels of communication, provide a chance to reshape strategy, and possibly even bring us closer to peace in the Middle East.
