Cabinet reshuffle: Rumours, trial balloons and facts

“I am not a knight on a white horse,” he declared last week at a seminar on Thailand’s competitiveness. “It’s more like I’m [riding] a crippled horse.”

If the premier has stepped up his self-deprecating humour lately, it’s because the burden of intractable problems piling up on his shoulders means he would likely be the first to admit he doesn’t enjoy being up there anymore.

“You have to look at what the situation was before I came in. There are many problems that can’t be resolved overnight, because they are both political and legal. There are still problems with spending the budget. There are times when even if I issue an order, it doesn’t necessarily mean action can be taken immediately,” he admitted.

Then, as if in a sudden moment of enlightenment, he confessed: “Don’t think that [absolute power] under Article 44 can address every problem.”

And right in the wake of this depressing situation, the premier has been slapped with speculation that he is considering replacing the economic ministers in the Cabinet – and perhaps also the agriculture minister, allegedly because he failed to prevent the unprecedented drought that has hit the farming sector hard. Not only that, but urban residents have been showing signs of panic after problems with their tap-water culminated in a cut to supplies in the suburbs of Pathum Thani province.

The premier’s response to the reshuffle rumours has been understandably obscure. One day he said they were just the fruit of over-imaginative journalists. Then he said that he had something up his sleeve but would only discuss it at the appropriate time.

There is, however, little doubt that the suggestion that a new team of economic affairs ministers is needed in order to regain public confidence must have been raised by the premier’s advisers as well as outside observers. In politics, sometimes it doesn’t matter what brought about an economic decline. What matters is finding someone to blame and bringing in fresh faces that can provide a new lease of life for the government.

Instead of confirming or denying the reports, the premier chose to side-step the issue by resorting to his role of “grumpy old man”. He complained to reporters: “Cabinet members have been working so hard that they are all ready to quit.”

Has that got anything to do with another rumour that a “national reconciliation government” is in the works – and that retiring Army chief General Udomdej Sitabutr is being tipped to take over as the “neutral prime minister” of this “grand coalition?” These separate speculations from different quarters aren’t necessarily related in any way. Again, in Thai politics rumour-mongers rarely consider it necessary to justify the rationale behind their stories, however wild or even downright impossible they might be.

General Udomdej wasted no time in shooting down the “reconciliation government” rumour, calling it too far-fetched to deserve a serious response. Prayut didn’t bother to respond at all. He was too busy trying to explain that rumours his brother General Preecha Chan-o-cha would succeed General Udomdej had nothing to do with him being the prime minister.

Does that mean a Cabinet reshuffle is out of the question? No. The speculation didn’t surface out of nowhere. The fact that Deputy Premier Pridiyathorn Devakul has stepped up his public appearances to insist that the country’s economic situation is still under control indicates his supporters are pushing him forward to pre-empt a move to replace him.

Somkid Jatusripitak, one of the premier’s top advisers, has vigorously avoided the press. That’s another indication pointing in the same direction. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, who is due to retire as central bank governor, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for a “prominent role” in the new set-up.

Perhaps, when people speculate about a “grand coalition” they are talking about the “economic team” – and not the entire Cabinet. Not all rumours are true, of course – though some are designed as nothing more than trial balloons. But believe me, a good percentage of them will turn out to be incredibly accurate.