More than an APEC photo opportunity for Obama

More than a photo opportunity of world leaders in local garb, Apec offers US President Obama the chance to signal US commitment to Asian allies’ defence and development.

When New Jersey Governor Chris Christie declared last week that he would fly Air Force One over disputed islands in the South China Sea, his intent might well have been to win over American voters in his bid to replace what he called Obama’s and his then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s “feckless” and “weak” foreign policy. 

Relegated to the “undercard” in the most recent Republican presidential debate, the governor’s tough talk certainly won him some attention in the US and in Asia, including in the Philippines. That nation is hosting Obama and some 20 other economic leaders at the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, or Apec, forum today and tomorrow. The Philippines is also in a bitter dispute with China over vast areas of what it calls the West Philippines Sea.

Christie may never have the chance to direct the US presidential plane if his present poll ratings are any guide. “I’ll fly Air Force One over those islands,” Christie had declared. “They’ll know we mean business.” The “they,” of course, being the Chinese – but he could well have been referring to anyone looking for a leader perceived as being able to stand up to China today.

Indeed, Obama could well benefit from a few added, strategic stops in the Philippines beyond Apec. His journey could be used to signal strength and determination to Asian allies and to supporters of the just concluded Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal that his signature “pivot to Asia” is very much alive.

The powerful symbolism of a leader’s visit and itinerary – whom one talks to, where one visits – cannot be underestimated, particularly in Asia. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent state visits to the United States and Britain are examples. A glittering White House state dinner helped underscore China’s importance to his fellow Chinese back home. Xi also spent time with America’s business titans, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. The clear message being communicated? America’s most famous business leaders cannot ignore China’s economic stature and market size. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was reported to have asked Xi to name the young billionaire’s unborn child – a request that it was also reported that Xi snubbed. The word “kowtow” comes to mind.

And in London, Xi spent a night at Buckingham Palace and was guest of honour at a state dinner hosted by Queen Elizabeth II. The tables had clearly turned since the mid-1800s, when China was forced to cede Hong Kong to the British and later saw an Anglo-French force sack Beijing’s Summer Palace amid the humiliating Opium Wars. 

So, beyond the talkfest and side meetings at the heart of every annual Apec summit, what might Obama do to underscore through his travels that the Asia pivot, or “rebalance”, continues?

First and foremost, a visit by Obama to the Asian Development Bank – “Asia’s World Bank” – is warranted. Such a move would also be very much welcomed by two key US allies: Japan (the ADB president has always been Japanese) and the ADB’s host country, the Philippines. Established amid the post-war reconstruction efforts of the early 1960s with strong US support, the Manila-based ADB is, for now, the largest Asia-based international financial institution focused on economic growth and poverty reduction in the region.

Why for now? China has won the support of almost every US ally in Europe and Asia – except Japan – to establish a major new multilateral financial organisation, known as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The AIIB – “China’s World Bank – is expected to be up and running by year’s end with its first projects coming in second quarter of 2016. With capital of US$100 billion – much of it provided by China – the institution at its creation will already be nearly two-thirds the size of the ADB.

A US presidential visit to the ADB would help underscore that indeed the United States, in Christie’s words, “means business” when it comes to standing by old friends and the institutions that it helped create and foster in the post-war world.

So too would the United States and its rebalance to Asia benefit from the powerful symbolism of a presidential visit to two one-time US military bases not far from Manila. The former US Naval Base in Subic Bay and the former Clark US Air Force Base were once the largest US bases of their kind in Asia – the base at Subic Bay was by some measures roughly the size of the nation of Singapore. 

The two bases were converted to economic, trade and other uses following the 1991 eruption of nearby Mount Pinatubo and the rejection by the Philippines Senate of a deal to extend the lease of the American bases in the Philippines. 

Amid China’s rise, however, many Filipinos may well welcome stronger US-Filipino defence ties even as the Philippines has stuck to diplomacy and taken its dispute with China to an international tribunal. A Philippines Supreme Court ruling is expected soon on the constitutionality of an “enhanced defence cooperation agreement” between the US and the Philippines.

A visit by Obama to Subic, Clark or both could be used to underscore America’s long-term commitment to the Philippines and other Asian allies amid China’s maritime expansion and its building of artificial islands in the South China Sea. 

Now a “free-port”, Subic would also provide the venue for Obama to further emphasise the value of freedom of navigation to trade and economic growth. A visit to the former Clark Air Base would provide the US president the chance to visit – just days after US Veterans Day – one of the few cemeteries operated by the American Battle Monuments Commission around the world for America’s war dead. In January 2013, Obama had signed into law the Dignified Burial and other Veterans’ Benefits Improvement Act, directing ABMC to operate and maintain the cemetery, which had been damaged in the Mount Pinatubo eruptions and fallen into disrepair.

In April 2014 in Manila, my successor as US ambassador to the ADB, Robert M Orr, presented Obama with a book commemorating the work of Obama’s late mother, Ann Dunham, with the ADB. Dunham had worked as an ADB consultant on projects involving Pakistan and Indonesia.

How fitting and powerful it would be if Obama, on this latest trip to the Philippines, were to signal through stops at the ADB, and at Clark and Subic Bay, that America’s commitment to Asia – whether its development or defence – extends through generations. And in doing so, he need not direct Air Force One to fly anywhere it was not already scheduled to go. Asia will remind him though that even the best symbolism must be followed by substance.

 

Curtis S Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. Follow him on Twitter at @CurtisSChin.