Let’s be ready for changes to the economic landscape

According to a recent report, three groups of people will have great influences on the direction of the Thai economy. They are tourists from China, members of the ageing population and unmarried individuals. We all know why these groups are important to the future economy, but the magnitude of their impact might not have been fully realised. Since the three groups continue to grow in size, it is imperative that policy-makers take determined, immediate steps to ensure that the economy accommodates them the best it can.

Travel groups from China come to Thailand in ever-increasing numbers and in a continuous stream. The tourism industry has abruptly had to adjust after being focused for generations almost entirely on Westerners coming to see the beaches and temples. The industry’s efforts to adapt could use more state help, such as through intensive language and cultural training. The government can do a lot more in facilitating the change, rather than letting matters evolve naturally, a hazardous choice that would only encourage underground operations of a shoddy or even criminal nature.

More than 10 million Chinese tourists have visited Thailand each year in recent years. On average they stay between seven and 10 days and spend Bt4,000 to Bt5,000 per day. They tend not to buy the typical merchandise that attracts tourists, such as cosmetics and jewellery. Their spending is more spread out and thus of benefit to a broader range of retailers.

Meanwhile, with the birth rate falling, our rapidly ageing society is going to be costly to accommodate. They need special kinds of housing, furniture, food and more. If unprepared, the providers in industry will soon be scrambling to meet these requirements. A comprehensive shift in planning is required. Consider, for example, that convenience stores and department stores will be dealing primarily with elderly people rather than youngsters. Similarly, manufacturers of food, clothing and pharmaceuticals will have seniors foremost in mind when developing new products. Mobile phones will evolve to appeal to them rather than the younger generation. Television producers will have to reprogram their content. 

And, for both the elderly and the booming singletons, leisure events will gradually take on whole new forms.

The other great shift in the dynamic of Thai society is the rapid rise in the number of unmarried people, and the market will have to adjust to meet their needs too. They have different requirements and expectations than married couples when it comes to homes, furnishings, personal vehicles and leisure activities. For the most part young, they aren’t limited by health concerns like the elderly and can thus do more, commit more time – and spend more money.

Their lifestyle pursuits are diverse, but also utterly alien to the choices made by married people, especially those with children. We already have some industries specifically catering to single people, but hardly enough to keep pace with the fast growth in their numbers. 

Serving the needs of these three groups without upsetting the country’s economic balance is going to require long-term vision from the government and the private sector. Economic development is usually driven by technological progress, less often but just as importantly by consumer trends. The decision to build more rail lines rather than expanding air transport, or vice versa, comes down to engineering progress and public trends. 

Even at the outset, we can’t afford to ignore the drastic shifts taking place in society. For now, the Chinese tourists, the elderly and the unmarried are having a marginal impact on the economy. While it is still marginal, we should be planning and budgeting for the day when it becomes central.