Intriguing showdown ahead of charter referendum

The prelude to the charter referendum is getting increasingly intense, as it should. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has challenged his haters to create “disorder” while his opponents are building a watchdog network to observe the crucial voting, which has so much at stake. But whether or not both sides, deep down, want something different from their public gestures in regard to the referendum outcome remains to be seen.
Prayut must have sent chills down many people’s spines with his characteristically bold and politically incorrect statement about his future. He doesn’t need to be loved to stay on in power, as he did not come from an election, he said. But whether he is loved or hated, he would have to leave office if the controversial charter draft clears the referendum.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, meanwhile, is somewhat ambiguous regarding the voting. The UDD has opened a centre to monitor the referendum, claiming it feared fraud. The movement did not make it obvious, but it now appears to want the military-organised referendum to go on, which underlines complexities of the whole political situation.
The UDD is walking a tightrope. It doesn’t want to support the charter draft, but it doesn’t want the referendum to collapse, either. To come out to “monitor” the referendum car?ries the impression that the UDD “endorses” at least some steps of the reform process.
If the charter draft is shot down, life will be easy for the UDD. If not, the movement will find it difficult to launch post-referendum campaign to discredit the draft.
An alternative for the UDD would have been to mount a campaign to boycott the referendum but that would be against the law. Probably worse, that would play into its opponents’ hand and prolong what the UDD doesn’t want – Prayut’s stay in power. In fact, only a smooth passage of the charter draft is the safest way for the UDD to get what it wants – Prayut’s departure and the Pheu Thai Party’s return to power.
The complexities are glaring. Chaos could make it easier for Prayut to stay on, whereas passing of the charter draft could give the political party supported by the UDD a real fighting chance. An election next year would be a lot more guaranteed by acceptance of the draft than if it was rejected.
The irony is huge. To return to “democracy”, one may have to walk through the door provided by “military dictators”. If that option is not taken, the alternative is to risk bloodshed and/or a lot longer period under the shadow of the military.
Considering the complexities, Prayut’s apparently senseless rant – that he doesn’t care about his image – can be a powerful statement. He was obviously making a threat, but he probably wanted his opponents to also think about it seriously. This is the rule of the game, he was saying. “Live with it or I’ll change it” is his clear warning.
The situation is increasingly intriguing. Thailand has come to a point where what leading figures say may not reflect their true motives. This isn’t supposed to be what the country’s highest law is all about. The Constitution is supposed to be for ordinary people, with key details designed to protect or enhance the public’s best interests.
The charter draft is being supported or criticised for reasons that had little to do with the man on the street, making the upcoming referendum little more than a political game, played by anyone but the nation’s genuine stakeholders.