A triumph for ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ means more of the same

Let’s face it: Irrespective of whether the draft constitution passes the referendum or not, what needs to be changed the most will not be. Years of divide have spawned hatred and prejudices to the point where Thais view deaths of fellow Thais differently, and the polarity is certainly not going away. The referendum on Sunday is meant to lend some democratic flavour to the controversial process of creating the highest law of the land, but democracy doesn’t always mean harmony, especially in Thailand.

The acceptance of the draft charter will not lead to reconciliation, nor will the rejection of the draft. The document has a lot to do with neutralising some political elements, and the campaign against it has a lot to do with letting them loose. All this has little, if at all, to do with the ordinary people. Approving or rejecting the draft has a lot more to do with the political elites than those at the bottom of the pyramid. We Thais are made to believe that a vote for or against the charter is about us, but the hard truth is that the draft, or its abortion, will not make Bangkok’s traffic nightmare disappear or give the rural poor dirt-cheap telecom access.

National politics has come to dominate daily lives, making them feel that it’s their main duty to make sure the Senate is appointed, or elected, or take a stand on whether the prime minister should come from an election. In reality, it matters very little whether the Senate is appointed or elected, as long as crime prevention is effective, public utilities reach all rural homes, and children get the education they deserve.

The draft constitution and the campaign against it are focused on the “big” players. They are the real stakeholders in Sunday’s referendum but they have somehow managed to convince a lot of Thais, and probably the world, that it’s all about grassroots people. What’s panning out is a game in which real problems of the man on the street, like rampant narcotic abuse, poverty, injustice that favours the rich, etc, are overshadowed by the interests of a privileged few.

Make no mistake, the referendum is necessary at this point, where there is no other way to get a semblance of public participation in the process. A unilateral declaration of a new charter would create a whole new set of problems. Still, it’s debatable what could make things worse – a summarily enacted charter or the referendum.

The passing of the charter draft would pre-empt a few things, at least in the near future. If the “No” vote prevails, so will potentially dangerous uncertainties. Either way, the most troublesome aspect of the Thai crisis will stay unaffected. Cut-throat political manoeuvres will continue and are likely to intensify, keeping previously-harmonious Thais engaged in a war that in truth does not concern them one bit.

Many Thais have become casualties of that war, drawn into activism that appears noble on the surface but possibly destructive on the inside, filled with a hatred that is both unreasonable and hardly removable. Political wars are won through filling formerly innocent hearts with hatred, and such a strategy has been enforced at full throttle on this land.

Just take a look at the most recent ugly incident. A reporter was stripped on the order of a politician angry over his coverage. One camp of the political crisis is quiet while the other is making a lot of noise. Why? It’s because most Thais are judging things through eyes tinted with political “colours”. The political crisis, nasty as it is, is threatening to turn into something even nastier – a wholesale moral collapse.

Whether it’s a victory for “Yes” or for “No” this Sunday, a large number of Thais will not be happy, and the divided nation could be staring at fresh violence. We can blame the military government or Thaksin Shinawatra if it occurs, but the truth is that if bad things were to happen after the referendum, it would be because Thais allowed it. The people’s distorted moral standards have tolerated things that should not have been tolerated, and found other things intolerable that should have been forgiven. 

The vote won’t change a thing. Only the casualties of the war themselves can set everything back to zero. Thais have been the real victims, and they are heading to the ballot booths with that status intact. The challenge is not to remain so after Sunday, and the solution, no matter how hard or elusive, will have to come from them.