So much rests on lifting Myanmar sanctions

It is as inevitable as the sun rising in the morning that, sooner or than later, US sanctions imposed on Myanmar will have to come to an end. The fundamental reason for this is that Myanmar is a high-value asset in American global strategy. The raft of sanctions introduced in 1991 in a bid to pressure the country’s military dictatorships into easing suppression had their desired effect. Democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi is now at the apex of power as the nation’s de facto leader. It has been a remarkable shift in outlook since the days when the US State Department castigated Myanmar as one of the world’s “pariah states”.

Suu Kyi’s struggle has shifted from shedding the yoke of personal and party suppression to winning the trust and cooperation of the Tatmadaw – the armed forces – which clings to a significant share of legislative power. In discussing the international sanctions, her voice is softer now than it had been during her years in opposition, when she welcomed foreign pressure as a means of forcing reforms. Now, of course, she wants to see the economy develop rapidly. The lifting of all sanctions becomes essential.

President Barack Obama, three months shy of leaving office, is unable to accommodate her as he would wish, blocked in his bid to do so by a partisan Congress. He has nevertheless attempted in recent weeks to solidify his legacy regarding Asia, especially Southeast Asia, effectively using summit meetings in Vientiane to stress that America’s future strategy relies heavily on this region. He came to convince local leaders that the US is here to stay, regardless of who wins the presidential election in November. Not everyone was convinced of that, though, and anxiety about the future is high.

Obama visited Southeast Asia 11 times during his two terms in office and met all of the 10 countries’ leaders, earning a special distinction in their relations with foreign powers. Myanmar’s emergence from the darkness of totalitarianism was his administration’s “gold medal”, and he wants to make sure the fledgling democracy can move ahead quickly and help bring about further changes in the region. While in Laos this month he drove home the point in addresses to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and an assembly of “young leaders of the future”.

To gain traction in its democratic development, Myanmar needs a stronger economy, with more jobs and better pay raising the standard of living. Financial progress cannot be assured, however, without political and social stability, so it is crucial that ongoing efforts to attain peace and reconciliation are successful. The peace process, reinvigorated this month at the 21st Century Panglong Conference, has yet to achieve a breakthrough, but it has raised hopes that a permanent end to hostilities is possible with the ethnic militant groups that have been battling the central government for nearly four decades. To pacify the militants, Suu Kyi must have the full cooperation of the Tatmadaw.

By any measure, Myanmar is already the game-changer in Southeast Asia. Suu Kyi, who serves as foreign minister as well as state counsellor, has shown diplomatic finesse in her dealings with Asean and its dialogue partners. US investment in Myanmar is running ahead of all other foreign investors. Lifting all of the sanctions will bring in more direct investment, give the economy a firm foundation on which to build, and, by improving the lot of citizens, ensure that democracy flourishes.