In the Marawi conflict, a warning for Thailand

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte last week declared martial law in the restive region of Mindanao to quell violence by a militant group linked to Islamic State in the city of Marawi. The Maute militants – named after a local clan that has become increasingly powerful over the years by taking other extremist groups under its wing – burned down buildings, took hostages and displaced tens of thousands of residents. The government military is struggling to regain control of the city in a conflict that has so far cost more than 100 lives. 
Isnilon Hapilon, an Islamic preacher who’s on the United States’ most-wanted list, is said to be commanding the militants. Hapilon is a former commander of Abu Sayyaf, a group of bandits known for kidnapping foreigners. The group pledged loyalty to Islamic State in 2014. Maute began to assert itself locally last year when its militants flew an IS flag at a Marawi mosque and ordered the imams to toe their line. 
Duterte’s decision to impose martial law raised understandable concern, especially among those who had suffered through the Marcos regime. The Philippines’ 1987 Constitution allows martial law to be declared in the event of rebellion or invasion. Congress will have to decide whether armed Islamic militants seizing a city in Mindanao – even if backed by fighters from Indonesia, Malaysia and Arab countries – meets either of those criteria. The brutally oppressive Marcos era resulted in another built-in constitutional safeguard. The Supreme Court has the power to nullify martial law within 60 days.
Concern over state abuse of the law aside, the unavoidable fear in the Mindanao crisis is that the region might become a new base for violent extremists in Southeast Asia. The IS has after all been weakened in Iraq and Syria after years of confrontation with Western forces. The Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict warned last year that Southeast Asian fighters fleeing the Middle East “could look to Mindanao to provide temporary refuge as they work their way home”. It appears that the clashes in Marawi are a sign of further troubles to come.
Mindanao is also home to several major, armed ethnic groups that have been negotiating with the government over autonomy – a communist faction and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and its breakaway Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Unlike the radical Islamist militants seeking to wage jihad and establish an Islamic nation, the MNLF and MILF are engaged in an ethno-nationalist struggle, fighting for their right to self-determination.
In some ways they are much like the Patani Malays in the Thai South. They are Muslims who reject IS doctrine, and neither has gained much ground in years of conflict with state forces. Both, however, are at risk of being exploited by foreign extremist groups. Jemaah Ismamiyah has in the past decade tried to exploit the conflicts in Patani and Mindanao, unsuccessfully thus far. There is no reason to believe the IS won’t try the same and perhaps have better luck. Thai security officials are frequently on edge about possible Islamic extremists passing through en route to theatres of war or merely biding their time here, laying low.
If the southern Philippines’ borders are vulnerable to penetration by extremists, the Thai South offers pockets where outsiders could hide if local insurgent cells and the community give permission. There is no room for complacency.