A diplomatic test for Prayut

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the world’s only military leader heading a civilian government, left for the United States last night.
If the US press continues its barrage of criticism of their president, who has been under fire for playing on people’s fears, anger and hatred for his personal and political gains, they will use this opportunity to remind Donald Trump that Prayut is nothing short of a generalissimo. 
For as long as anybody can remember – some would say since World War II – Thai leaders have been thrilled at the idea of going to Washington on an official visit. 
More than any previous Thai government, the Prayut administration has been desperate for international recognition, partly because of the political crisis that has gripped the country for more than a decade now. 
But one is left wondering if Prayut and Co know what they are getting themselves into given the current political and security climate in the Asia-Pacific region. 
The rise of China and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and the danger of a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula are some of the issues that Prayut will be confronted with.
Thai diplomats and top brass should not be fooling themselves into thinking that there is such a thing as “Thai-US relations”. Thailand, like other Asean members, is seen through the China-US lens. Thailand has not been a top issue for Washington for a very long time and there is no reason why the Trump administration is going to change that. 
Indeed, when it comes to China, Washington looks for a “win-win” outcome. When it comes to Asean members, it’s “America First”. It’s all about trade benefit. By removing some counterfeit and pirated goods from the Bangkok wholesale and retail market, Thailand cannot ingratiate itself to Washington. 
If Thailand can purchase submarines from China, Trump must be pretty certain that Bangkok can be coaxed into buying some Boeing jets. After all, Malaysia did that! 
In line with America’s recent action, Trump might ask Thailand to cut any economic links with North Korea. China took the lead and ordered all North Korean firms to close down in line with the UN sanctions. 
Is Thailand nimble enough to play this game? Will Thai rice be on the table?
Prayut needs to be on his toes while negotiating with Washington. It will be a diplomatic challenge for the Thai PM to navigate through the complicated maze created by the rise of China and Thailand’s relations with the Asian giant, the North Korean conundrum, and the demands from Washington that Thailand and Asean step up and contribute their share. 
There is an old saying that Thailand’s foreign policy sways with the wind. But at least leaders in the olden days were sensible enough to gauge how the wind was blowing and take pragmatic measures.
Can one expect the same pragmatism from generals who are part-time politicians when dealing with the White House? 
Fellow Asean members had their reasons and ways of dealing with Trump. Vietnam’s leader went there because the dispute with China was on their mind and they needed assurance of support from the US. 
The visit by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was about terrorism and trade – two of Trump’s obsessions. It was a win-win. Kuala Lumpur needs the jets and Washington wants to know what Malaysia will do with Islamic State fighters returning from the Middle East. 
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was also invited to the White House but he chose not to make a big deal out of it. Duterte would settle for a meeting on home soil, which will happen in November at the annual Asean summit.