Let’s imagine a peaceful election

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha – and both his supporters and his opponents – have all contributed to almost daily speculation that he will seek to remain in power beyond the next election. New charges being levied against Thaksin Shinawatra have occupied headlines, though the move wasn’t entirely a surprise. 
And, although the Democrats and Pheu Thai Party, traditional rivals long before the military take-over, will never fully see eye to eye, their shared disdain for the military junta has led to previously unimaginable talks about a temporary alliance in the name of loosening the generals’ grip on power. Now Suthep Thaugsuban is dropping hints that his political movement, dormant since Prayut’s coup, is about to stir again. And the smaller parties are watching and waiting for the chance to have an impact on Thailand’s next political turn. 
The evolving speculation will fill the months leading up to the next election with uncertainty and unpredictability. At stake is the fragile peace that came when Prayut rolled out his tanks in 2014, putting an end to the violence plaguing the country.
Prayut’s claim that he staged the coup for the sake of peace has always been doubted, but the peace will be challenged further in the coming months as electioneering war drums grow louder. The threat will come not just as a result of renewed political rivalry, but also from the explosive question of whether he should cling to power, even if it entailed a role behind the scenes.
Since the coup, the more legitimate influence of the Shinawatra family has been diminished. Parliamentary and judicial actions have forced Yingluck Shinawatra into the same operational back room in exile as her brother Thaksin, assuming she remains interested in politics at all. No one else in the clan matches them for popular appeal, so none could lead Pheu Thai, as they did.
We are of course no nearer to the national reconciliation that Prayut promised. On the contrary, we now anticipate an every-man-for-himself prelude to the election. Old wounds will likely reopen regarding the rice-pledging scandal that sank Yingluck’s government, Suthep’s disregard for democracy, the Democrats’ bloody crackdown on red-shirt protesters and earlier violence against the yellow shirts. 
Was there ever a sincere effort to bring about reconciliation? All that the 2014 coup accomplished was ending the shooting and bombing. The fundamental ideological disagreement remains intact and can only be festering, since the generals removed one political party from power and pursued politicians from that party in court.
Election Day, when it comes, will see resentment vented. We can only hope that happens in an orderly way, but it could also be violent – and it might not stop with the ballot tally. The stakes remain high for the Shinawatras despite their reduced influence. Suthep will still want them gone forever. Prayut, if he is to have a political stake, will have to make clear where he stands on the division.
For the average voter, the aim should be to shed the belief that conditions must hit rock bottom before they begin to improve. Thailand’s political miseries can be blamed in large part on the 
notion that violence is a valid way to effect change. Such thinking led the nation into a vicious cycle. 
Now the spinning has again become ominous.