Arab Spring will take on many shapes and colours

Thousands have already died before this liberation comes. In fact, no revolution or major historical event has been non-violent, and no religion or ideology is free from the stain of violence. The two world wars killed 95 million people before the concept of human rights dawned in the human mind. Thus the issue before us is whether human beings can transcend myopic religious and ideological views and become compassionate, irrespective of religion or ideology? Thus there is no pro-this or pro-that religion or ideology perspective when it comes to discussing global affairs. It is a discourse.

My articles in The Nation are on the current developments in Middle-Eastern politics. Politics is not a static process; politicians are creatures of their time who continually change their orientation. The current post-Islamist scenario in the Middle East is challenging even the Islamists. Thus, previously held information, ideas and theories about the role of religion in the Middle East is becoming outdated. New conditions and views are shaping the current and future Middle East in which Islam will play a pertinent but not a dominant role. Thus it is foolhardy to remove religion from the political process in any Muslim country; it comes in many shapes. 

The current Arab Spring of revolution heralds the coming of democracy and pluralism in the Middle East. The old Arab world is passing away. Of course there many attempts by internal and external forces to hijack the revolutions. The current Arab world scenario cannot be understood on the basis of the Cold War era and pre- and post-9/11 information and theories.  When it comes to religion, the approach of comparing the best of one's own religion with the worst of others is prejudicial. And just because some Muslims say what others take to be Islam is not Islam at all. This is how stereotypes are produced.

In times of human progress, it is ridiculous to read or take any sacred or non-sacred text literally. Every text has a context; to read or understand them literally betrays their universal content, resulting in faulty understanding. Every society is made up of different classes and different intellectual positions, thus all of them read texts differently; there is not one but many readings. The Muslim world, like other societies, has its modernists, liberals, progressives and post-modernists, as well as its literalists.

This brings me to discuss the current developments in Libya and Syria. The end of Gadhafi, a tyrant ruler, will not come at a free cost. Massive use of firepower on the ground and from the air to remove the tyrant who has exploited his country for 41 years has left many dead. Yet, what did we see at the international level? We saw that Nato and other Western countries were on one side, while members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) were on the other, with both blocs seeking their own interests at the cost of thousands of lives. South Africa even forced the UN to water down its resolution against Gadhafi. The BRICS countries gave up their support for Gadhafi when it became clear that he was on the way out.

Previously, in the cases of Tunisia and Egypt, the Western countries did not give up their support for Ben Ali and Mubarak until they realised it was too late. Such international actions only prolong conflict, war and terrorism, in which religions and ideologies are exploited for ulterior motives, keeping the Middle East autocratic, totalitarian, underdeveloped and in a continual situation of conflict, with little hope for peace and development for the benefit of the masses. Meanwhile, heavy-handed authoritarian rule continues in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

As Bashar al-Assad continues to use brutal force, the Syrian Muslims continued with their peaceful protests through the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, resulting in heavy casualties. The international community is reluctant to intervene in Syria because of its geo-strategic location and also because of the sectarian Sunni-Shia divisions in the Muslim world.

Syria is witnessing the rise of sectarian distrust between its Sunni majority and the Alawite Shia populations, who were friends until recently. Under pressure, the Sunnis are fleeing to neighbouring Lebanon. Meanwhile, regional players like Saudi Arabia, as the leader of the Sunni world, and Iran, as that of the Shia, are being made restless in the face of landmark transformations taking place in the region.

The rise of more democratic countries in the region will affect the shape of pan-Arabism and regional bodies such as the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, i.e. between the republican governments and the monarchies.

The previous Libyan and Syrian chants of "Allah, Muammar/Assad, Libya/Syria" are coming to an end. They are being replaced by calls for freedom from zulm - oppression. The ring for freedom and democracy in the Arab world makes Islamophobics sceptical and nostalgic for the Shahs and Mubaraks.

But freedom, democracy and development are not the exclusive privileges of some societies. The Libyans and Syrians seek to be free Muslims and not be led and coerced by the religious extremists or states that control religion through official bureaucratised clergymen who read out weekly Friday sermons in the name of the autocrats. Arab revolt led by the youth and senior statesmen seeks a new democratic Middle East, thereby proving that the theory of Islamic exceptionalism to democracy is a wrong and misleading concept.

The fall of Gadhafi also has consequences for wider Africa, whose authoritarian rulers were his pals, as he financially sponsored the African Union. It will add pressure for internal reform in African countries. The end of Gadhafi's Libya also has implications for international actors in Africa such China, the US, France, Britain and India.

As Western countries and oil companies scramble to seek deals in the new Libya, the factions-based National Transitional Council has to see that it does not get fragmented and derailed as it seeks to stabilise Libya.  On the other hand, Russia's reluctance to support an international campaign against Syria and Libya lies in its interests in Central Asia and Iran, the energy market, and in stopping the emergence of more pro-West regimes in the Middle East, as the latter resets itself. The new great game continues now in the Arab-African theatre.

Dr Imtiyaz Yusuf is professor of Islamics and religion at the Graduate School of Philosophy and Religion, Assumption University, Bangkok.