Export growth likely to fall to 10% next year
The value of Thai exports is expected to grow by just 10 per cent next year, because of the global economic slump, rising fuel and production costs and the baht's appreciation.
Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong will meet with 65 overseas trade counsellors today with a view to setting a target and driving export growth next year.
Nuntawan Sakuntanaga, director-general to the Department of Export Promotion, said yesterday that the agency now expected to achieve at least 10-per-cent growth in export value during 2012, with the emphasis being on promoting sales to emerging markets.
She said the department would pursue strategies to drive export growth to new markets, to compensate for slower growth to traditional markets.
It will also focus more activity in Asean countries ahead of the implementation of the Asean Economic Community and encourage more exporters to benefit from free-trade agreements.
However, the director-general highlighted several negative factors that would hinder export performance during 2012.
She cited the US and European Union in particular, as those markets would have lower purchasing power because of their uncertain economic situations. The United States' third economic-stimulus package, which is expected to see a US$400-billion (Bt12 trillion) injection into its economy, will help maintain US consumption next year, however.
Other factors expected to affect exports negatively next year include the baht's appreciation, an increase in the minimum daily wage to Bt300, and higher fuel prices.
Overseas trade officials have reported that exports to traditional markets, including the US, the EU and Japan, would face negative expansion next year from the higher export-value base this year.
The Kingdom's overall exports are expected to achieve at least 15-per-cent expansion to $224 billion this year.
Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said export growth of at least 17-20 per cent is expected this year, driven mainly by significant growth during the first seven months.
However, export volume will fall in the second half, because of a lower supply of commodities and the global economic slowdown.
The flood situation will drive up the price of farm goods by 15-20 per cent in the final quarter of the year because of damaged production, he said.
