EU, US stimuli back 15% export growth forecast
In the light of the economic stimulus packages of the EU and the US and the continued strong growth of emerging markets, the Commerce Ministry has set the country's export growth target at 15 per cent for next year.
"The ministry is confident Thailand will achieve overall export growth of 15 per cent from at least 15-per-cent expansion to US$224 billion [Bt6.77 trillion] this year," Kittiratt Na-Ranong, deputy prime minister and commerce minister, said yesterday.
After meeting in Bangkok with 65 Thai commercial counsellors from around the world, he said that although some markets would show more tepid growth, consumer demand would not wilt, which will ensure steady growth of Thai exports.
Although the economies of traditional customers, mainly the US and the European Union, are expected to stall or shrink next year, the United States' third economic stimulus package will help maintain consumption in that country next year, he said.
Although the Thai government has a policy to promote the domestic economy, it will not ignore exports and will support the continued growth of shipments abroad, the minister said.
The trade representatives should promote understanding among buyers that the prices of Thai rice and some goods may need to increase on higher production costs, he said.
The key measures to drive export growth next year are developing higher-value-added products and services, focusing on Thai-branded goods and upgrading product standards to respond to concerns about the environment and corporate social responsibility.
The ministry will also keep on increasing exports to emerging countries.
Exports to the EU are expected to grow more slowly next year at 8 per cent, from this year's 12 per cent, to $30.37 |billion.
Pakaisakdi Svastisinha, the Thai trade representative in France, said exports to the EU including France were expected to show slower growth, as consumers would lose some of their purchasing power after the financial crunch.
However, there is still hope, since middle-class consumers will pay more attention to quality products from Thailand than to expensive goods from Western countries.
Phaichit Viboontanasarn, the Thai trade counsellor in Beijing, said exports to China were set to ramp up at least 20-25 per cent next year, thanks to robust consumer demand and the Chinese government's policy to reduce taxes for several goods.
China's government wants to stimulate domestic consumption by reducing duties by 2-15 percentage points from an average of 30-40 per cent. The measure will help increase demand for imported goods and benefit Thai exports.
Kittiratt's ministry has also set targets to other markets next year, including to Asean - 25-per-cent growth, up from 23 per cent this year.
